Voting PTI Will Make PPP Win Next Elections - Dr Farrukh Saleem


MPA (400+ posts)


Dr.Farrukh saleem

In 2008, Karachi elected 20 MNAs, the most from any one city. The MQM won 17 general seats and the PPP won three. The NA-239, 248 and 258 are PPP strongholds. In NA-248, Nabeel Ahmed Gabol of PPP polled some 85 percent of all valid votes. NA-240, Karachi II, was hotly contested but MQM won by a small margin.

Lahore sends in 12 MNAs. Here, NA-118, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 127 and 128 are the PML-N’s traditional strongholds where its candidates win by extra-wide margins. Moreover, NA-119 was won by Hamza Shehbaz, uncontested. In NA-125 Khawaja Saad Rafique polled more than 70,000 votes. NA-129, Lahore XII, was hotly contested by the PML-N, PPP and PML-Q but the PPP won. In NA-130, the PPP won and next time around the PTI would further cut down the PML-N and the PPP will win with a wider margin.

Faisalabad has 11 general seats of which eight are in rural areas. Of the total population around 64 percent is rural. According to extensive research into election results from 1977, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997 and 2002 conducted by Dr Mughees Ahmed, “Only biradaries in numerical majority are successful. It means that people cast their votes to biradari supported candidates.” Six of the largest biradaries are Jaat, Rajput, Arain, Kharal, Baloch and Gujar. For the PTI to win a seat or two in Faisalabad, Imran Khan would have to team up with one or more of the six biradaries.

Balochistan has a total of 14 general seats. In NA-259 and 260, the PTI can be a spoiler whereby the PPP will win by even wider margins. Most other constituencies are strongholds of the Jamalis, Jogezais, Mandokhails, Kakars, Bugtis, Rinds, Marris, Kurds, Durranis and Bizenjos. Is the PTI going to join forces with the sardars?

Can the PTI grab a seat or two in Sukkar, Ghotki, Shikarpur, Nawabshah, Khairpur, Hyderabad, Badin, Mirpurkhas, Tharparkar, Dadu, Sanghar or Thatta? Looks very, very difficult. Can the PTI win one of the four seats from Peshawar? What are PTI’s chances in Nowshera, Charsada, Mardan, Swabi, Kohat, Karak, Haripur or Mansehra? How about Abbotabad? May be a couple of seats-at best.

Punjab sends in 148 MNAs. The PTI’s chances in Lodhran, Khanewal, Pakpattan, Vehari, DG Khan, Rajanpur, Muzafargarh, Layyah, Bahawalpur and Bahawalnagar are quite dismal. How about winning a handful of seats from Sargodha, Mianwalli, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Sheikhupura and Multan? Perhaps, but a handful at best. Imran Khan is bound to become the ‘spoiler’ whereby the PTI’s candidates have little or no chance of wining but the party’s presence in the election will draw votes from the PML-N thus causing the PPP to win by even wider margins. To be certain, the ‘spoiler effect’ has a firm statistical basis referred to as the ‘independence of irrelevant alternatives’.

Maurice Duverger, a French politician, a jurist and an emeritus professor of the Sorbonne, was the first to discover that countries practicing single-member district plurality (SMDP), or as we call them first-past-the-post or winner-takes-all, end up breeding a two-party system. In Pakistan, we have a voting system whereby “voters have a single vote which they can cast for a single candidate in their constituency, in which only one legislative seat is available.”

As a consequence of SMDP-based elections in 1970, 1977, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997, 2002 and 2008, Pakistan has a two party electoral system (frequent military interventions have at times distorted the natural evolution of a two-party system). As per Duverger’s Law we have the PPP and the PML-N; two major parties with dissimilar ideologies. Under the Law, if the PTI, a minor party, tries to exploit established vote banks, the PTI will draw votes from a major party most similar to the PTI. And, that would most certainly be the PML-N not the PPP (as a result, the PPP, the most dissimilar party to the PTI, will win). What then is the probability that the PPP would come back with a majority? A two-third majority?
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MPA (400+ posts)
Request to PTI Supporters: Kindly, don't starting abusing PML (N), Nawaz Sharif or the columnists. Please discuss on facts, kindly don't make this thread a machli bazar. If you don't have good points to make this discussion a good healthy discussion than its better not to reply in this thread. I hope you understand. Thankyou.


Senator (1k+ posts)
This time PPP and PMLN wont have the 45 % Fake votes to rely on, and another 40 Million votes will be added so none of Farrukh Saleems hard work will make sense after that. This is the most important election in our life lets bring a change for ourselves and our children, Vote PTI and Imran Khan in Both National and Provincial assemblies. Remember Bhutto he was alone, remember MMA no one was expecting that. This will be a bigger shock for Mian Sahib and I think he knows it too :)


Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
partially agreed.... the only party which will suffer from PTI is PMLN and the only party which will be beneficiary is PPP...ham phir thagon k hath bewaqoof ban jaen gay... Imran khan please make a coalition.... dont dream for clean is impossible.......


Senator (1k+ posts)
ok take my analysis on lahore
ppp will win his seat seat with further margin
except two seats pml n will not win any seat.very optimistic view
PTI will win all other seats with huge margin
mark my words
and about others area he is using answer mark
if he even himself not clear why he is writing this all bullshit
Bharay ka tatoo
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Politcal Worker (100+ posts)
Why PTI will draw only PMLN's voters? I mean why wont PTI have any effect on PPP's voters? He is trying to imply that PPP's voters are more loyal to their party than PMLN's voters, without providing any valid reason.


Senator (1k+ posts)
Request to PTI Supporters: Kindly, don't starting abusing PML (N), Nawaz Sharif or the columnists. Please discuss on facts, kindly don't make this thread a machli bazar. If you don't have good points to make this discussion a good healthy discussion than its better not to reply in this thread. I hope you understand. Thankyou.
who u hill is to decide about other follower of trash


Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
PPP ke vote destroy karne ke liyie khud Zardari aur rehman malik kafi hain.un ke liyie Imran Khan ko zyada mehnat nahi karni padegi...PMLN apne aap ko chupati rahi hai,....aur Imran Khan sirf un ko expose kar raha hai...PPP already expose ho chuki hai in 3 saalon mein...Toh yeh kehna ghalat hai ke faida PPP ko hoga...InshaAllah waqt in sab ka faisala karega...Agar is sab ke bawajood bhi log in ko vote denge toh phir hum deserve karte hain aur hum maan lenge ke abhi hamare a'amal is layaq nahi ke hum Allah SWT ki rehmat ke qabil bane.


Councller (250+ posts)
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Our doubts are traitors, and make us lose the good we oft might win, by fearing to attempt.[/FONT]


My Guess, ppp-25%, pml-n-15%,pml-q-10% , pti-15%, anp-10%,interior sindh parties - 15% and mqm - 10%

and pti,pmlq,mqm and interior sindh parties will make govt.


Politcal Worker (100+ posts)
Massive flaw (deliberate) in your argument is that PTI is not attracting any ex-PPP supporters. Big mistake. I know for a fact that it is.

In fact most people who will vote for PTI this time round would be ones who have never voted in the past because they agreed with none of the options. That includes me :)...
Hence the true turn (Turn out minus fake/duplicate votes) will be much larger this time.


Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Wrong analysis. I think they are paid journalists unable to recognize the change. Change is happening in front of them IK will sweep.


MPA (400+ posts)
This person is insane , he often writes trash articles against Imran khan and PTI , he is in the same liberal facists league that always undermines the strength of IK and PTI. This particular comlumnist anylyses the situation as if the minds of the people are dead, and let me tell you biradarism cannot win you an election, quite often the candidates from both PMLN and PPP are from the same biradari in punjab , how will this stooge columnist analyse that kind of situation. These pessimists are worthless and so are their "phateechar" columns. No nation in the world is static, nothing is static in the world, peoples affiliation and their mindset changes with time, I can give my own example I never thought until 2009 that IK can ever gather a procession with more than 1000 people but now we see that 10s of thousands of common people are attending his jalsas where ever he goes because literally everyone is supporting him and seeing him as new leader and the most appropriate candidate as future prime minister of pakistan. After the next elections all these pseudo intellectuals will be busy in :banghead::banghead::banghead:



Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
he is good research scholar and personally may be honest but he is a pessimist and I don’t believe that he understands the mechanics of politics. He is one of those who believed that Imran khan would never be popular. Now when he is, they are in a state of shock. Secondly, they don’t know every super power has to go when it is stretched out. They think that United States is going to rule the globe forever. It never happened in the history and it would never happen. The universe is created and ruled by Allah and not by super powers. This kind of intellectuals were telling us for a decade that soviet union can not be defeated in the Afghanistan and now for a decade, they are insisting that United States is going to stay in the land of Afghans. I fear, they don’t have the sense of history and I am sorry to say that they are prejudiced.

omerkashmiri - Blogger
PTI will definitely make a dent in PMLN vote bank but it does not mean that it has no vote bank of itself ! PTI may not win in sindh and balochistan this time but i think it will manage to win in KPK and in urban Punjab . PPP got lots of sympathy vote in last election which i do not see happening ever again .