The West and the Rest: The Changing Global Balance of Power in Historical Perspective

InsafianPTI

Minister (2k+ posts)
Niall Ferguson discusses the rise of China and the challenge this poses for the United States in terms not only of economics, but also of geopolitics and 'soft power'.

Appologies to those who have already seen it!

 
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InsafianPTI

Minister (2k+ posts)
watch how the speaker was accused of being simplistic (like people do with IK)

chinese nationalism considered as threat?
chinese growth will slow down in 15-20 years?
consider china as threat to US but India in long term

The strength of ligitimacy of chinese govt and their historic knowledge as comapred to western politicians.
He describes china a real threat to west.

Do we agree?
 
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InsafianPTI

Minister (2k+ posts)
Niell Ferguson starts at 23 mintutes past:

watch his interesting findings from 31 minutes:
He thinks China can catch up with US by 2016



very interesting last 5-10 minutes.
having the best higher education (That US has) is not good enough when you haven't given good quality basic education to your younger pupils.
 
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InsafianPTI

Minister (2k+ posts)
The 'rest' have dowloaded 'six killer applications' bringing them to prosperity and revolution

1) Competition
2) science
3) Property Rights (see him explaining this at 41 minutes)
4)Medicine
5) The consumer Society
6)The work ethic

He says that is why the 'rest' is changing and shifting!
 

InsafianPTI

Minister (2k+ posts)
Harvard Prof. Niall Ferguson on Decline of America and Rise of a New Global Economic


see his talk about dollar after 5 minutes [MENTION=24375]AsifAmeer[/MENTION]
 
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AsifAmeer

Siasat.pk - Blogger
Isnt it amazing to listen to their few yr old comments and b able to judge their concepts of understanding via current events..

He is wrong. China cant make it it out of this mess unless it reforms its currency, cuts loose the International Monetary Standard of the Dollar. If China or Germany can lift itself out of this mess, then I can lift the bucket I am standing in!

Notice what he talks about the debt.. That was 1st explained by Irving Fisher in the 1930s.. Its called the Debt super-cycle.. Debt has to be liquidated for the economy to reform. You cant put on dirty clothes after taking a shower and feel new.. nope! Not gonna happen.

I honestly feel the dollar will rally in the short run and Gold/Silver will be the long term global currency.

Harvard Prof. Niall Ferguson on Decline of America and Rise of a New Global Economic


see his talk about dollar after 5 minutes @AsifAmeer
 

InsafianPTI

Minister (2k+ posts)
ok you do know I don't understand that much economics, When i heard all his talk it seemed like he was sort of making sense (with a bit of exaggeration of course) but now now it seems you make sense too, so basically I am confused with my limited knowledge of the subject.
See I don't know much about the dollar supremecy (I think u r right) but all the other things he says about china they seem correct and realistic,
my uni lecturers say something similar!
China prob have many problems but so does US and europe, and prob that is why the are so hostile towards china, don't you think?
Don't you think they have too much interest in us because of this particular issue?
That is what important for me!
Isnt it amazing to listen to their few yr old comments and b able to judge their concepts of understanding via current events..

He is wrong. China cant make it it out of this mess unless it reforms its currency, cuts loose the International Monetary Standard of the Dollar. If China or Germany can lift itself out of this mess, then I can lift the bucket I am standing in!

Notice what he talks about the debt.. That was 1st explained by Irving Fisher in the 1930s.. Its called the Debt super-cycle.. Debt has to be liquidated for the economy to reform. You cant put on dirty clothes after taking a shower and feel new.. nope! Not gonna happen.

I honestly feel the dollar will rally in the short run and Gold/Silver will be the long term global currency.
 

AsifAmeer

Siasat.pk - Blogger
I wont be able to make all the cases against Niall in a post. Lekin he was wrong then and he is wrong now. Did you watch the video i shared? He says that if only Germany accepts the Monetary Federation, all will improve.. Wrong and wrong. There has been a huge economic imbalance on a global stage BECAUSE the central banks hid their debt and didnt allow price-discovery and market forces to let the economies adjust. You know these very countries China and Germany.. and all their surpluses.. They are gonna go bad. Wait.. I take that bad. All those surpluses have already gone bad. Tell me something. You buy a $10,000 car. You wreck it and then when you try to sell it, you are offered $1,000. So you decide to keep the car. Tell me, does keeping the car reduce your $9,000 loss? The loss occurred at the moment of the wreck. Loss just isnt registered on paper.. thats all.

Ab masla ye hai.. all that German Chinese surplus.. all that sits on their Banking sector's balance sheets. Out of every $1,000 of capital, banks lend around 12~15,000 of loans. Imagine if the surplus is recorded as "bad debt". It will simply wipe out the German and Chinese banks. And these arent German and Chinese banks.. these are major major Global financial players. If they go down, they take down the markets with them.. Why? BECAUSE THEY ARE THE MARKETS!

Ye log de-coupling ki baat karte hain.. I feel they are intellectually dishonest! Some are down right retards like Krugman.

If you truly want to understand economics, read history books, especially financial history. Also there's this amazing amazing comic book called "How an Economy grows and why it crashes" Skip right to chapter 1. Just go thru the cartoon pictures and you'd be an economist in about hour & 15min!

Economics isnt a field. Its common sense. Plain ol fashioned simple common sense...

ok you do know I don't understand that much economics, When i heard all his talk it seemed like he was sort of making sense (with a bit of exaggeration of course) but now now it seems you make sense too, so basically I am confused with my limited knowledge of the subject.
See I don't know much about the dollar supremecy (I think u r right) but all the other things he says about china they seem correct and realistic,
my uni lecturers say something similar!
China prob have many problems but so does US and europe, and prob that is why the are so hostile towards china, don't you think?
Don't you think they have too much interest in us because of this particular issue?
That is what important for me!
 
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