Thar: Claims vs Facts

Geek

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Thar: claims vs facts

Sunday, July 04, 2010
Dr Farrukh Saleem

Claim 1: Thar coal reserves stand at a colossal 185 billion tons. Fact 1: Pakistan's proven reserves of bituminous or anthracite (higher-quality) coal are next to nothing. Pakistan's proven reserves of sub-bituminous and lignite reserves (lignite is brown coal, the lowest-ranked coal) stand at 3,050 million tons, which amounts to 0.3 per cent of the global total. (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.)

Claim 2: Thar coal reserves dwarf Saudi Arabia's proven oil reserves of 264 billion barrels. (Saudi reserves amount to 25 percent of the global total.) Fact 2: In 1981, Pakistan produced 1.6 million tons of coal. Over the past 25 years our coal production has steadily gone up and we currently produce around 4.3 million tons a year, or a meagre 0.6 percent of world production. Asad Umar, president of Engro Corporation Limited, the company that has signed a joint venture with the government of Sindh for Thar Block II, has this to say on the subject: "One cannot make a direct comparison between oil and coal because oil travels very well and coal does not, and therefore oil dominates the energy market. So even if your [coal] reserves are bigger than Saudi Arabia's [oil reserves], it doesn't mean that you are going to become a Saudi Arabia of energy. And given that we don't have the best-quality coal, we have lignite coal which is very high in moisture, it's not going to be a globally traded commodity. It's not that we will start exporting 10 million barrels of oil energy per day."

Claim 3: Thar coal reserves can produce enough electricity to end load-shedding and then power Pakistan for the following 50 years. Fact 3: Leading financial institutions around the world have long discontinued the financing of coal-fired power plants. According to Engro, "Pakistan is unlikely to generate any power from Thar coal before 2016. Feasibility should be completed by the end of 2010. Then one year for financial close and then four years of execution, which means the end of 2015."

Claim 4: Americans do not want Pakistan to develop Thar coal reserves. Fact 4: As a matter of record, in the early 1990s, it was the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), actually looking for water, which first identified the presence of coal deposits in Thar.

Claim 5: Thar coal can be converted into gas and the gas can then be converted into transportation fuels. Fact 5: The South African company Sasol (Suid Afrikaanse Steenkool en Olie) has been producing petrol and diesel from coal (through the Fischer-Tropsch process). In essence, coal gasification is a proven technology. Thar coal can potentially be converted into gas, but the question that is yet to be answered is: will such conversion be cost-effective and economically viable?

Claim 6: Thar coal is both technologically and economically viable. Fact 6: There is not a single scientific study on record that claims that Thar coal is both technologically and economically viable. Technical and economic feasibility studies are yet to be undertaken. At the same time, "regional geologic conditions, coal seam continuity, structure, quality, topography, altitude, slope, surface drainage patterns, groundwater conditions, availability of labour and materials, coal purchaser requirements, capital investment requirements" and environmental impact are yet to be ascertained.

Imagine. Japan's proven reserves of lignite coal is zero, but Japan manages to produce $4 trillion worth of goods and services a year. It's not about extracting coal. The real name of the game is developing your human capital.

http://thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=248791
 

Geek

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
what is the athenticity of this report?

What is the authenticity of other report that claims Thar coal reserves have solution of all our energy problems for next many years.Dr Farrukh Saleem is very good in stats and try to prove his point of view with logic and authentic source. you can see source in Fact 1.
 
S

shagi

Guest
Geek... I have explored and studied each o of your points you made against coal of Pakistan. They are all bunddle of lies. Infact you are just spreading rumours and confusions. You must be having some wested interests, you are may be belonging to those who actually do'nt want to see Pakistan on its feet after utelizing its coal reserves. You must be belonging to 'Oil Mafia' who want to keep Pakistan constantly dependent on their oil.
 

YAHYA87

Senator (1k+ posts)
The news about Coal of Pakistan being poor quality is true and even media has admit that in many occasions but it might be poor but its not useless...anyways we should start evaluation of things in Pakistan cause we have the habit of over estimating our capabilities and abilities...
 

shaheedchoudry

Minister (2k+ posts)
Dr Farrukh Saleem is really cool headed and believes in facts and figures rather than rhetoric. To me he makes sense and has credibility. So, for critical thinkers there is a lot to learn in this report.
 

Samlee

Senator (1k+ posts)
Thar: claims vs facts

Sunday, July 04, 2010
Dr Farrukh Saleem

Claim 1: Thar coal reserves stand at a colossal 185 billion tons. Fact 1: Pakistan's proven reserves of bituminous or anthracite (higher-quality) coal are next to nothing. Pakistan's proven reserves of sub-bituminous and lignite reserves (lignite is brown coal, the lowest-ranked coal) stand at 3,050 million tons, which amounts to 0.3 per cent of the global total. (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.)

Claim 2: Thar coal reserves dwarf Saudi Arabia's proven oil reserves of 264 billion barrels. (Saudi reserves amount to 25 percent of the global total.) Fact 2: In 1981, Pakistan produced 1.6 million tons of coal. Over the past 25 years our coal production has steadily gone up and we currently produce around 4.3 million tons a year, or a meagre 0.6 percent of world production. Asad Umar, president of Engro Corporation Limited, the company that has signed a joint venture with the government of Sindh for Thar Block II, has this to say on the subject: "One cannot make a direct comparison between oil and coal because oil travels very well and coal does not, and therefore oil dominates the energy market. So even if your [coal] reserves are bigger than Saudi Arabia's [oil reserves], it doesn't mean that you are going to become a Saudi Arabia of energy. And given that we don't have the best-quality coal, we have lignite coal which is very high in moisture, it's not going to be a globally traded commodity. It's not that we will start exporting 10 million barrels of oil energy per day."

Claim 3: Thar coal reserves can produce enough electricity to end load-shedding and then power Pakistan for the following 50 years. Fact 3: Leading financial institutions around the world have long discontinued the financing of coal-fired power plants. According to Engro, "Pakistan is unlikely to generate any power from Thar coal before 2016. Feasibility should be completed by the end of 2010. Then one year for financial close and then four years of execution, which means the end of 2015."

Claim 4: Americans do not want Pakistan to develop Thar coal reserves. Fact 4: As a matter of record, in the early 1990s, it was the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), actually looking for water, which first identified the presence of coal deposits in Thar.

Claim 5: Thar coal can be converted into gas and the gas can then be converted into transportation fuels. Fact 5: The South African company Sasol (Suid Afrikaanse Steenkool en Olie) has been producing petrol and diesel from coal (through the Fischer-Tropsch process). In essence, coal gasification is a proven technology. Thar coal can potentially be converted into gas, but the question that is yet to be answered is: will such conversion be cost-effective and economically viable?

Claim 6: Thar coal is both technologically and economically viable. Fact 6: There is not a single scientific study on record that claims that Thar coal is both technologically and economically viable. Technical and economic feasibility studies are yet to be undertaken. At the same time, "regional geologic conditions, coal seam continuity, structure, quality, topography, altitude, slope, surface drainage patterns, groundwater conditions, availability of labour and materials, coal purchaser requirements, capital investment requirements" and environmental impact are yet to be ascertained.

Imagine. Japan's proven reserves of lignite coal is zero, but Japan manages to produce $4 trillion worth of goods and services a year. It's not about extracting coal. The real name of the game is developing your human capital.

http://thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=248791



It Is High Time To Give A Detailed Point By Point Rebuttal Of This Intellectual Terrorist

Fact 1: Pakistan's proven reserves of bituminous or anthracite (higher-quality) coal are next to nothing. Pakistan's proven reserves of sub-bituminous and lignite reserves (lignite is brown coal, the lowest-ranked coal) stand at 3,050 million tons, which amounts to 0.3 per cent of the global total. (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.)

Rebuttal:Here Is The BP Statistical Review of 2010
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_inte...eport_2010.pdf

The Figure of 175 Billion Tons Has Been Verified By An Organization No Less Than USGS.

Fact 2: In 1981, Pakistan produced 1.6 million tons of coal. Over the past 25 years our coal production has steadily gone up and we currently produce around 4.3 million tons a year, or a meagre 0.6 percent of world production. Asad Umar, president of Engro Corporation Limited, the company that has signed a joint venture with the government of Sindh for Thar Block II, has this to say on the subject: "One cannot make a direct comparison between oil and coal because oil travels very well and coal does not, and therefore oil dominates the energy market. So even if your [coal] reserves are bigger than Saudi Arabia's [oil reserves], it doesn't mean that you are going to become a Saudi Arabia of energy. And given that we don't have the best-quality coal, we have lignite coal which is very high in moisture, it's not going to be a globally traded commodity. It's not that we will start exporting 10 million barrels of oil energy per day."

Rebuttal:
1 Ton of Lignite Coal=2.053 Barrel Oil
So 175 Billion Tons=359.275 Barrel Oil
Saudi Arabian Proven Reserves Are 262 Barrels Oil and By The Way Dr Sahib Who Told You That Thar Coal Is Going To Be Traded Globally.All Planning and Projects Regarding Thar Coal Are With The Intention To Utilise It To Feed Our Economy and Industry.


Fact 3: Leading financial institutions around the world have long discontinued the financing of coal-fired power plants. According to Engro, "Pakistan is unlikely to generate any power from Thar coal before 2016. Feasibility should be completed by the end of 2010. Then one year for financial close and then four years of execution, which means the end of 2015."

Rebuttal:
This Is Wrong.According To Holland Based Think Tank on Banking Practices,BankTrack,Since 2005,93 of The World Leading Banks Poured Billions Of Dollars Into Financing Coal Based Power Plants.Since 2005, financing of the construction of coal-fired power plants by JPMorgan Chase has exceeded $22 million. Following closely behind JPMorgan Chase are Citigroup ($18.6 million), Bank of America ($17 million), and Morgan Stanley ($16.4 million). Overall financing for new construction by the 93 banks since 2005 has totaled $313.5 billion. Furthermore, the report points out, financing for the coal industry in 2010 was almost twice as high as it was in 2005.
Although Adhering To The Requirements Of Corporate Social Responsibility,Banks Tend To Favour More Environmentally Friendly Projects Like Solar, Wind and Clean Coal.For This They Come Up With Different Goals Like The Equator Principles and Carbon Principles(Upto What Extent They Act Upon It Is Another Question).But It Is Totally Wrong To Say That They Have Stopped Financing Coal Power Plants.


Fact 4: As a matter of record, in the early 1990s, it was the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), actually looking for water, which first identified the presence of coal deposits in Thar.

This Is Response To A Plain Conspiracy Theory. No Technical Arguements Required Here.


Fact 5: The South African company Sasol (Suid Afrikaanse Steenkool en Olie) has been producing petrol and diesel from coal (through the Fischer-Tropsch process). In essence, coal gasification is a proven technology. Thar coal can potentially be converted into gas, but the question that is yet to be answered is: will such conversion be cost-effective and economically viable?

Rebuttal:
Dr Sahib Do You Honestly Believe That Spending More Than $8 To 10 Billion in Precious Foreign Exchange Reserves and Still Enduring Long Periods of Load Shedding and Gas and Petrol Shortages Is Economically Viable and Cost Effective Then I Can Only Advise You To See An Applied Psychiatrist.


Fact 6: There is not a single scientific study on record that claims that Thar coal is both technologically and economically viable. Technical and economic feasibility studies are yet to be undertaken. At the same time, "regional geologic conditions, coal seam continuity, structure, quality, topography, altitude, slope, surface drainage patterns, groundwater conditions, availability of labour and materials, coal purchaser requirements, capital investment requirements" and environmental impact are yet to be ascertained.

Rebuttal:
Nothing Can Be Further From The Truth.Multiple Reports Covering Different Aspects of Thar Coal Have Been Made.Thar Coal Discovered accidentally in the year 1989, during an exploration project of defunct SAZDA (Sindh Arid Zone Development Authority) to find drinkable water in the desert, Thar Coal has remained a matter of active national debate. The size and the quality of Thar Coal reserves were known to a great extent since 1993 after a study by John T Boyd Company, US Mining consultants, only to be reinforced in subsequent studies by other international experts. However, there have always been conflicting views which at times create confusion about technical viability and commercial feasibility of mining and power generation on Thar Coal.

Thar Lignite Coal resource was initially estimated to be around 135 billion tons which was subsequently enhanced to 175 billion tons after review of data by USGS (United States Geological Survey) and GSP (Geological Survey of Pakistan). This estimate was based on distanced bore holes over an area of 9,000 sq kms which meant a source estimate of around 194 million tons of lignite per sq km. Subsequent explorations carried over an area of 1,200 sq have provided even higher figures of proven reserves of being around 200 to 350 million tons of lignite per sq km.
These Reserves Were Even Verified By China NE Geology Bureau In 2006.
Shenhua,Oracle and RWE of Germany Have All Conducted Feasibility Studies,Technical and Economical.I Will Give Details In Some Other Post if Required.​

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/econom...har-coal-claims-vs-facts-2.html#ixzz1xY09jIJs
 

Samlee

Senator (1k+ posts)
Dr Farrukh Saleem is really cool headed and believes in facts and figures rather than rhetoric. To me he makes sense and has credibility. So, for critical thinkers there is a lot to learn in this report.


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