Faheem Imtiaz
MPA (400+ posts)
Assalam o Allaikum!
Ajkal aap log mukhtalif sahafio sa aik conspiracy theory sun raha hon gay jo sab azad ummedwaro ka jeep ka nishan lana sa mutaliq ha. Sab Ch Nisar ko potential prime minister ka candidate zahir kar raha hen. Men aksar jab aysa programs daikhta hun to hansi aa jaati k ye log kis kadar Jahiliyat k sath bat kar raha hen band thora to analysis kar laita ha. Sab isi pa qaim he k Ch Nisar hamesha jeet jaatay hen is dafa bhe jeet jain ga lehaza wo Wazir e Azam k umeedwar hen, to Dosto meri raay men ye presumption e totaly ghalat ha Ch Nisar k jeetny k chances is dafa shadeed khatry men hen aaiya jaiza laitay hen kaisay!!
(Note 1: Mery poling agent k experience sa men ye baat janta hun poling k din k andar vote badalna wali dhandli baray paimany pa hona takreeban na mumkin ha jo bhe aysi baat karta ha wo haqaiq k bar aks ha)
(Note 2: Only Halqa NA 59 is discussed jahan sa sahafi un k jeetny ka imkan zahir karty hen)
Suru karty hen 2013 k election sa or phir factor by factor jaiza laitay hen: Chaudhry Nisar sb na is Halqay sa 132,905 vote liya in k made muqabil Coln Ajmal Sabir na 69539 votes liya or Basharat Raja na 43,833 votes liya is tarah Ch Nisar k khilaf takreeban 113,372 vote paray. Ab aatay hen factors par:
1) PMLN & ENG QMAR UL ISLAM:
Ch Nisar ki vote bank men aik bara hissa PMLN or Qamar Ul Islam k zati vote bank ka tha Ye banda hamesh khud ko Nisar k sapahi kehta tha. Is na 2013 k election men kisi bhe provincial assembly seat pa sab sa zyada vote liya thay, Ye is dafa PMLN k ticket holder hen PMLN ka apna jamati vote bhe is halqay men kafi ha agar men honest andaza lagaun to ye vote kam sa kam 40 sa 50 hazar hona chahya lekin is calculation men aap ye dono vote mila k 25 hazar kar len
2) Kallar Sayedan or Mulhiqa 4 UCs:
Pichli dafa k election result ka agar andaz lagaya jay to Ch Nisar sb Chakri wali side sa haar gay thay lekin Kallar Sayedan or in UCs sa takreeban sab ka sab vote wo la gay or lead bana gay is are men kam sa kam vote 40,000 ha jo cast hota ha. Agar imandari sa tajzia kiya jay to ye 80% Ch Nisar ka vote ha lekin is thread ham is ko 60% Ch Nisar ka vote kehty hen which makes it 24,000. Ye Areas ab NA 59 sa nikal chukay hen or NA 57 men shamil ho chuky hen.
3) Basharat Raja
Ghulam Sarwar na ye master stroke khaila ha k Basharat Raja ko apna sath MPA ki ticket dilwa di mazkoora baala 43,833 vote mukamal tor pa Basharat Raja ka apna vote ha jis men shayad izafa e hua ho ga kami k koi imkan nahe. Lehaza ye vote bhe PTI k vote bank men add ho gaya ha
4) Coln Ajmal Sabir Raja
Coln sb 2013 men unknown entity thay lekin 70,000 vote la gay is men un ka zati vote bank zarur ho ga lekin ye major PTI ka vote ha. Is dafa PTI na inhen ticket nahe di jis ki waja sa wo Naraz ho k Independent lar raha hen. Is narazgi ka PTI ko 10 sa 12 hazar ka nuqsan to ho ga lekin Ch Nisar sb ko koi faida ne pohanchay ga Coln sb ab is area men aik acha influence rakhtay hen.
5) Tehreek e Labaik Pakistan
In k 10 sa 12 hazar vote kam sa kam is halqay men mojood ha. Is ka major chunk to PMLN ka naraz voter ha lekin in men kuch PTI k voters bhe he, so lets take e.g. 50% of this is PTI , 50% of this is PMLN
Now Ch Nisar stands at 132,905 - 30,000 - 25,000 - 6000 = 71,905 votes
PTI stands at 69539+43833 - 6000 -5000 -10000 = 96,872 votes
MALOOM NAHE KAISY ISY EXPERIENCED SAHAFI IS KO EASY VICTORY DECLARE KAR RAHA HEN!
Ajkal aap log mukhtalif sahafio sa aik conspiracy theory sun raha hon gay jo sab azad ummedwaro ka jeep ka nishan lana sa mutaliq ha. Sab Ch Nisar ko potential prime minister ka candidate zahir kar raha hen. Men aksar jab aysa programs daikhta hun to hansi aa jaati k ye log kis kadar Jahiliyat k sath bat kar raha hen band thora to analysis kar laita ha. Sab isi pa qaim he k Ch Nisar hamesha jeet jaatay hen is dafa bhe jeet jain ga lehaza wo Wazir e Azam k umeedwar hen, to Dosto meri raay men ye presumption e totaly ghalat ha Ch Nisar k jeetny k chances is dafa shadeed khatry men hen aaiya jaiza laitay hen kaisay!!
(Note 1: Mery poling agent k experience sa men ye baat janta hun poling k din k andar vote badalna wali dhandli baray paimany pa hona takreeban na mumkin ha jo bhe aysi baat karta ha wo haqaiq k bar aks ha)
(Note 2: Only Halqa NA 59 is discussed jahan sa sahafi un k jeetny ka imkan zahir karty hen)
Suru karty hen 2013 k election sa or phir factor by factor jaiza laitay hen: Chaudhry Nisar sb na is Halqay sa 132,905 vote liya in k made muqabil Coln Ajmal Sabir na 69539 votes liya or Basharat Raja na 43,833 votes liya is tarah Ch Nisar k khilaf takreeban 113,372 vote paray. Ab aatay hen factors par:
1) PMLN & ENG QMAR UL ISLAM:
Ch Nisar ki vote bank men aik bara hissa PMLN or Qamar Ul Islam k zati vote bank ka tha Ye banda hamesh khud ko Nisar k sapahi kehta tha. Is na 2013 k election men kisi bhe provincial assembly seat pa sab sa zyada vote liya thay, Ye is dafa PMLN k ticket holder hen PMLN ka apna jamati vote bhe is halqay men kafi ha agar men honest andaza lagaun to ye vote kam sa kam 40 sa 50 hazar hona chahya lekin is calculation men aap ye dono vote mila k 25 hazar kar len
2) Kallar Sayedan or Mulhiqa 4 UCs:
Pichli dafa k election result ka agar andaz lagaya jay to Ch Nisar sb Chakri wali side sa haar gay thay lekin Kallar Sayedan or in UCs sa takreeban sab ka sab vote wo la gay or lead bana gay is are men kam sa kam vote 40,000 ha jo cast hota ha. Agar imandari sa tajzia kiya jay to ye 80% Ch Nisar ka vote ha lekin is thread ham is ko 60% Ch Nisar ka vote kehty hen which makes it 24,000. Ye Areas ab NA 59 sa nikal chukay hen or NA 57 men shamil ho chuky hen.
3) Basharat Raja
Ghulam Sarwar na ye master stroke khaila ha k Basharat Raja ko apna sath MPA ki ticket dilwa di mazkoora baala 43,833 vote mukamal tor pa Basharat Raja ka apna vote ha jis men shayad izafa e hua ho ga kami k koi imkan nahe. Lehaza ye vote bhe PTI k vote bank men add ho gaya ha
4) Coln Ajmal Sabir Raja
Coln sb 2013 men unknown entity thay lekin 70,000 vote la gay is men un ka zati vote bank zarur ho ga lekin ye major PTI ka vote ha. Is dafa PTI na inhen ticket nahe di jis ki waja sa wo Naraz ho k Independent lar raha hen. Is narazgi ka PTI ko 10 sa 12 hazar ka nuqsan to ho ga lekin Ch Nisar sb ko koi faida ne pohanchay ga Coln sb ab is area men aik acha influence rakhtay hen.
5) Tehreek e Labaik Pakistan
In k 10 sa 12 hazar vote kam sa kam is halqay men mojood ha. Is ka major chunk to PMLN ka naraz voter ha lekin in men kuch PTI k voters bhe he, so lets take e.g. 50% of this is PTI , 50% of this is PMLN
Now Ch Nisar stands at 132,905 - 30,000 - 25,000 - 6000 = 71,905 votes
PTI stands at 69539+43833 - 6000 -5000 -10000 = 96,872 votes
MALOOM NAHE KAISY ISY EXPERIENCED SAHAFI IS KO EASY VICTORY DECLARE KAR RAHA HEN!
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