Sahafio ki JEEP - Chaudhry Nisar ki Haar - Zameeni Haqaiq

Faheem Imtiaz

MPA (400+ posts)
Assalam o Allaikum!

Ajkal aap log mukhtalif sahafio sa aik conspiracy theory sun raha hon gay jo sab azad ummedwaro ka jeep ka nishan lana sa mutaliq ha. Sab Ch Nisar ko potential prime minister ka candidate zahir kar raha hen. Men aksar jab aysa programs daikhta hun to hansi aa jaati k ye log kis kadar Jahiliyat k sath bat kar raha hen band thora to analysis kar laita ha. Sab isi pa qaim he k Ch Nisar hamesha jeet jaatay hen is dafa bhe jeet jain ga lehaza wo Wazir e Azam k umeedwar hen, to Dosto meri raay men ye presumption e totaly ghalat ha Ch Nisar k jeetny k chances is dafa shadeed khatry men hen aaiya jaiza laitay hen kaisay!!

(Note 1: Mery poling agent k experience sa men ye baat janta hun poling k din k andar vote badalna wali dhandli baray paimany pa hona takreeban na mumkin ha jo bhe aysi baat karta ha wo haqaiq k bar aks ha)
(Note 2: Only Halqa NA 59 is discussed jahan sa sahafi un k jeetny ka imkan zahir karty hen)

Suru karty hen 2013 k election sa or phir factor by factor jaiza laitay hen: Chaudhry Nisar sb na is Halqay sa 132,905 vote liya in k made muqabil Coln Ajmal Sabir na 69539 votes liya or Basharat Raja na 43,833 votes liya is tarah Ch Nisar k khilaf takreeban 113,372 vote paray. Ab aatay hen factors par:

1) PMLN & ENG QMAR UL ISLAM:

Ch Nisar ki vote bank men aik bara hissa PMLN or Qamar Ul Islam k zati vote bank ka tha Ye banda hamesh khud ko Nisar k sapahi kehta tha. Is na 2013 k election men kisi bhe provincial assembly seat pa sab sa zyada vote liya thay, Ye is dafa PMLN k ticket holder hen PMLN ka apna jamati vote bhe is halqay men kafi ha agar men honest andaza lagaun to ye vote kam sa kam 40 sa 50 hazar hona chahya lekin is calculation men aap ye dono vote mila k 25 hazar kar len

2) Kallar Sayedan or Mulhiqa 4 UCs:

Pichli dafa k election result ka agar andaz lagaya jay to Ch Nisar sb Chakri wali side sa haar gay thay lekin Kallar Sayedan or in UCs sa takreeban sab ka sab vote wo la gay or lead bana gay is are men kam sa kam vote 40,000 ha jo cast hota ha. Agar imandari sa tajzia kiya jay to ye 80% Ch Nisar ka vote ha lekin is thread ham is ko 60% Ch Nisar ka vote kehty hen which makes it 24,000. Ye Areas ab NA 59 sa nikal chukay hen or NA 57 men shamil ho chuky hen.

3) Basharat Raja

Ghulam Sarwar na ye master stroke khaila ha k Basharat Raja ko apna sath MPA ki ticket dilwa di mazkoora baala 43,833 vote mukamal tor pa Basharat Raja ka apna vote ha jis men shayad izafa e hua ho ga kami k koi imkan nahe. Lehaza ye vote bhe PTI k vote bank men add ho gaya ha

4) Coln Ajmal Sabir Raja

Coln sb 2013 men unknown entity thay lekin 70,000 vote la gay is men un ka zati vote bank zarur ho ga lekin ye major PTI ka vote ha. Is dafa PTI na inhen ticket nahe di jis ki waja sa wo Naraz ho k Independent lar raha hen. Is narazgi ka PTI ko 10 sa 12 hazar ka nuqsan to ho ga lekin Ch Nisar sb ko koi faida ne pohanchay ga Coln sb ab is area men aik acha influence rakhtay hen.

5) Tehreek e Labaik Pakistan

In k 10 sa 12 hazar vote kam sa kam is halqay men mojood ha. Is ka major chunk to PMLN ka naraz voter ha lekin in men kuch PTI k voters bhe he, so lets take e.g. 50% of this is PTI , 50% of this is PMLN

Now Ch Nisar stands at 132,905 - 30,000 - 25,000 - 6000 = 71,905 votes
PTI stands at 69539+43833 - 6000 -5000 -10000 = 96,872 votes

MALOOM NAHE KAISY ISY EXPERIENCED SAHAFI IS KO EASY VICTORY DECLARE KAR RAHA HEN!
 
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AEngineer

Councller (250+ posts)
First of all, Good analysis, but,, I would point out just one thing, :unsure: , 43833, the vote of raja basharat is a swing vote,:eek::geek: it can tilt any where, people will still give vote to raja basharat at provisional seat, but at national seat they will take their own decision, :giggle::love: who ever get in touch and approach them, will get that vote, :censored::eek: nisar only need 15k from that vote bank to grab the victory, Cheers !!! :D:giggle:
 

Faheem Imtiaz

MPA (400+ posts)
First of all, Good analysis, but,, I would point out just one thing, :unsure: , 43833, the vote of raja basharat is a swing vote,:eek::geek: it can tilt any where, people will still give vote to raja basharat at provisional seat, but at nation seat they will take their own decision, :giggle::love: who ever get in touch and approach them, will get that vote, :censored::eek: nisar only need 15k from that vote bank to grab the victory, Cheers !!! :D:giggle:
Nooooooo it was not swing vote he got those votes in cycle symbol and you know what was situation of cycle last election. That vote totally belong to Raja baradri and Basharat Raja!
 

Faheem Imtiaz

MPA (400+ posts)
First of all, Good analysis, but,, I would point out just one thing, :unsure: , 43833, the vote of raja basharat is a swing vote,:eek::geek: it can tilt any where, people will still give vote to raja basharat at provisional seat, but at national seat they will take their own decision, :giggle::love: who ever get in touch and approach them, will get that vote, :censored::eek: nisar only need 15k from that vote bank to grab the victory, Cheers !!! :D:giggle:
Or dusra is calculation men mene bohat e mohtat vote kis tadad li ha do you really think Qamar ul Islam and PMLN combined will only get 25000 votes no chance is sa zyada to Qamar sb Independent la len ga. So situation is quite dark for Nisar its not that easy now!
 

AEngineer

Councller (250+ posts)
Nooooooo it was not swing vote he got those votes in cycle symbol and you know what was situation of cycle last election. That vote totally belong to Raja baradri and Basharat Raja!

They will still vote for raja basharat, but they dont know ghulam sarver khan,:sneaky: he is an out sider,, :confused: and everyone know chuhdry nisar :love: , this vote bank was anti noon, but anti-PTI as well, now they will take a side, some will go to PTI but some will choose nisar as well :cool:
 

AEngineer

Councller (250+ posts)
they are voters of raja basharat but raja basharat is not running for NA seat, so they will make their own choice, who ever will approach them better, they will join that candidate :cool:
 

Aadmi

Minister (2k+ posts)
In sahafion ne roz raat ko beth k kuch na kuch bechna huta hai,kabhi zardari ko sadar bana dete hain kabhi nisar ko PM,abhi kuch dino pahle tak tu election hi time pe nahi hu rahe the
 

Faheem Imtiaz

MPA (400+ posts)
they are voters of raja basharat but raja basharat is not running for NA seat, so they will make their own choice, who ever will approach them better, they will join that candidate :cool:
Dont you ever worry about that Raja Basharat e un sa NA ka vote maangay aap jantay nahe in ka Aaapas men it kuty ka wair ha ye sari game e Ch Nisar ko harany k liya set ki gai ha. Kallar Sayedan men Raja Basharat k rishdaro k kuch Plazas hen jo Ch Nisar na encroachment men dalwa k girwa diya hen un ka case bhe chal raha ha ye bari tagri game ha!
 

AEngineer

Councller (250+ posts)
Your analysis was perfect if PTI has given ticket to raja basharat for NA-59 :) , cheers !! :giggle:
 

hawkinthesky111

Minister (2k+ posts)
Thats true i agree with you but Now i think it may turn out to be a good decision because of Getting Basharat Raja in Panel with Coln Ajmal Sabir it was impossible!
may be.. lets wait and watch....
Sarwar is too good in taxila and waha area but this constituency should not have been given to him
anyway no worries...
 

Faheem Imtiaz

MPA (400+ posts)
may be.. lets wait and watch....
Sarwar is too good in taxila and waha area but this constituency should not have been given to him
anyway no worries...
You are forgetting his hold on some of the new areas added to this constituency any ways i dont think Ch Nisar's victory is certain in this halqa. It is anything but that basic emphasis of my analysis was negating those journos who say he is estb candidate for PM. No no chance of that!
 

hawkinthesky111

Minister (2k+ posts)
You are forgetting his hold on some of the new areas added to this constituency any ways i dont think Ch Nisar's victory is certain in this halqa. It is anything but that basic emphasis of my analysis was negating those journos who say he is estb candidate for PM. No no chance of that!
true . i agree....
and we should not forget that after all he is a powerful candidate so he can win even without any help///
he is a veteran of this area.. you may say sheikh rasheed type of guy in this halqa so lets see.
 
perfect analysis.i am not from this constiuency but I lived in pindi for 5 years during my studies and understands the whole political scenorio of this constiuency.perfect analysis bro.it will be tough for ch nisar to win from this seat and with inclusion of raja basharat pti chances of winning in this constiuency has increased
 

AEngineer

Councller (250+ posts)
Infact PTI needs and PTI wants Chuhdry Nisar in Assembly,, kynkh assembly main betha chudhry nisar hamisha nawaz aur maryam ko chubta rahay ga :love::giggle::geek:
 

Faheem Imtiaz

MPA (400+ posts)
A single nisar in assembly is more deadly for nawaz than 50 MNAs of PTI :D;):giggle::geek:
You are missing two Basic Points my brother:

A - Gist of this article was not about whether Nisar will come in assembly or not, it was to refute that argument that Nisar is estb candidate for next PM which i refuted because Nisar may not win even how can estb select such person. So that argument is stupid- Jeep word is important

B- If Ghulam Sarwar wins it will be his prerogative which seat he wants to keep which he wants to release. There are big chances he may keep this seat and give other to some of his relative.
 

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