Real estimate of corona patients

[Ahmed Jawad]

The number of real corona patients in Pakistan is close to one hundred thousand. Here is how I estimated it.

I start with the number of deaths. This variable is difficult to hide because of so much focus on the issue. No. deaths=135


Now lets' define the case fatality rate , the case fatality rate is the percentage of deaths from the patients who were tested positive. The CFR goes from 3% in Germany to 13% in Italy. The real death rate is different than CFR. However diamond princess cruise gives a unique opportunity , it was a cruis ship and hence a closed system where around 3000 people were tested. The death rate came out to be 1.1%. This is the real death rate. However the average age on cruise ship was too high than Pakistan

The real death rate of corona for age of 50 years is around 1%. That is taken from diamond princess cruise case study which provides a unique opportunity to study case fatality rate in a closed environment.

In Pakistan the median age is 21 years. Therefore death rate should be much much better than the diamond princess episode. However the average health of a Pakistani person is also deteriorated. Give or take , I assume death rate of around 0.5%. This means one patient in every 200 patients dies. This is the most difficult estimate here, however I tried to be reasonable. There were some other considerations as well that I took but will get too technical.

The average time to death is around 15 days after infection. Therefore number of deaths is a variable with a lag of around 2 weeks.
Meaning that there were around 135*200=27K patients two weeks ago.

Unfortunately the exponential rate of growth varies from country to country, based on its response. Pakistan is fortunate that we are seeing the doubling rate of deaths is around one week, which can be taken as the doubling rate of real patients as well. Right now this number should be 27k*4. Around 100K patients.

The easiest way to estimate is take number of deaths and multiply it by 800 or simply 1000. You will be much much closer to the real estimate than what is given there.

Disclaimer: The writer is a data scientist with PhD in the field and industry experience of more than 10 years in Germany. At the end of the day, this is an estimate, if you do not agree , I am sorry

 

[pinionated]

Your disclaimer should have been: The writer is full of himself and thinks he knows shit.
The death rate varies from almost 12% in Italy to about 3% in Germany. How did u get 0.5% for Pakistan? Pakistan’s death rate is about 2% by official figure.
Unfortunately the exponential rate of growth varies from country to country, based on its response. What we need look for is the flattening or change of rate.

 

[Pakistani1947]

I agree the calculations and estimation.
There are far more Corona patients than being reported. Obvious reason being not enough capability to test and trace the patients.

 

[TMT]

 

[rfarooqi]

I agree with using deaths as basis of estimating the spread of COVID. However there is indeed an unexplained difference in how the disease has spread and has killed in different parts of the world.
Also in Pakistan and other 3rd world how do you know that reported cause of death is correct.
The method of using deaths as basis is best ec
Explained here

 

[pinionated]

Thank you for posting. Even though old, Sal khan explains it very nicely.

I agree with using deaths as basis of estimating the spread of COVID. However there is indeed an unexplained difference in how the disease has spread and has killed in different parts of the world.
Also in Pakistan and other 3rd world how do you know that reported cause of death is correct.
The method of using deaths as basis is best ec
Explained here

 

[khalid100]

What I have heard from different Doctors that there are different strains of COVID19 and some are more deadly that the others.
If thats true then that needs to be added to the equation too.

 

[rfarooqi]

Thank you for posting. Even though old, Sal khan explains it very nicely.

Another video I like is

I used it to help my kids understand exponential growth and its limits

 

[Ahmed Jawad]

Your disclaimer should have been: The writer is full of himself and thinks he knows shit.
The death rate varies from almost 12% in Italy to about 3% in Germany. How did u get 0.5% for Pakistan? Pakistan’s death rate is about 2% by official figure.
Unfortunately the exponential rate of growth varies from country to country, based on its response. What we need look for is the flattening or change of rate.

Hi Sorrry, again you are posting shit, what you post is CFR, Case fatality rate and not the death rate. Case fatality rate means the percent of people who are known to be positive , means they had test. Since 80% patients are asymptomatic or mild therefore there was no need of testing them :)

 

[Ahmed Jawad]

Your disclaimer should have been: The writer is full of himself and thinks he knows shit.
The death rate varies from almost 12% in Italy to about 3% in Germany. How did u get 0.5% for Pakistan? Pakistan’s death rate is about 2% by official figure.
Unfortunately the exponential rate of growth varies from country to country, based on its response. What we need look for is the flattening or change of rate.

have you looked at the exponential growth rate in Pakistan. The number of deaths are doubling every week