Predictions about Election 2018 for Punjab

[Hussain1967]

From now on till elections, I will make daily posts about my election predictions for Punjab. Having served as Govt officer in different districts of Punjab (and still serving) and having observed PMLN's politics very closely, I can tell you on-ground situation in different districts of Punjab. My predictions might be little biased towards PTI which is a natural thing but I will tell you clearly where PTI is weak. I will only discuss NA seats of Punjab. All members of Siasat.pk are welcome to comment on my predictions and give their own predictions. You can follow me on twitter at @DrMicrowaves


My first district will be Sargodha which is my native district.

NA-88 (Tehsil Bhalwal and Bhera): PTI (Nadeem Afzal chan will win easily)
NA-89 (Tehsil Kot Momin): Tough contest between Osama Ahmed Mela (son of former MNA Ghias Mela who won in 2008 on PMLQ ticket) and PMLN's Mohsin Shahnawaz Ranjha who won in 2013. PTI holds slight edge.
NA-90: (Tehsil Sargodha city): PMLN's Hamid Hameed holds the edge over PTI's Nadia Aziz. PMLN holds edge over PTI.
NA-91: (Tehsil Sillanwali): Good contest between PTI's Amir Sultan Cheema (son of 7 times MNA Anwar Ali Cheema) and PMLN's Dr. Zulfiqar Bhatti. PTI holds edge
NA-92: PTI (Sahibzada Naeem uddin Sialvi will win it easily. He is son of Pir Sialvi who parted ways from PMLN after Khatm-e-Nabuwat issue).

So, from Sargodha, PTI is winning easily on 3 seats (NA-88, NA-91, NA-92), PMLN will win one seat (NA-90), while there is very tough contest on 5th seat (NA-89)


I will post about more districts tomorrow.

 

[mubarik Shah]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1662948373804126

 

[mubarik Shah]

 

[Nightcrawl]

Nice effort.

 

[mubarik Shah]

 

[Kamran Stu]

چیخ پکار سے لگ رہا ہے اس دفا بڑا اپسیٹ ہوگا پنجاب میں

Lets Wait & Watch.

 

[Hussain1967]

چیخ پکار سے لگ رہا ہے اس دفا بڑا اپسیٹ ہوگا پنجاب میں

Lets Wait & Watch.

Yes, there will be. However, PMLN will still get around 50-60 NA seats, mostly from central Punjab. PTI is still weak in Faisalabad, Sheikhupura, Nankana Sahib, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Narowal, Kasoor and Okara. These districts hold 38 NA seats.

 

[Birdie101]

If PML-N is allowed-ed to form government again then they will obviously push hard with anti Army-judiciary narrative and will do everything to make them controversial. Also, Will do everything to kill NAB.So, "People" who is giving power to Sharifs for years should think twice before making choice.Also, Sanjrani type model won't work in federal government The guy is too weak to rebuke people criticizing him.Do you think that someone like him can become prime minister of Pakistan at this point?.....It would be disastrous and it would piss three biggest parties off.Pakistan needs a strong leader.Imran is the right choice.

 

[Hussain1967]

At present, it looks that PTI will get around 100 NA seats. It will show it how in my constituency-based analysis in this thread. I don't have time to write about all 141 constituencies of Punjab in one go. So, I will write it down over next one week. PTI can get up to 120 NA seats as well but that will be possible only if reasonable number of pmln voters sit at home like it happend in 1997 with PPP.

PTI will form federal govt with the help of independents (mainly from FATA and Punjab), GDA, MQM, PSP from Sindh, BNP-M and BAAP from Balochistan.

 

[Gujjar1]

Add na70

 

[Inqalabi]

If PTI don't cross the mark of 115, it will not be able to form the government and will have to sit in opposition, even 100 seats will be useless.

 

[LovePK-or-LeavePK]

If no NRO and elections are free and fair, it will be a landslide victory for PTI.

PMLN will be wiped out of Punjab all the way down to 20 seats.

There will be NO HUNG parliament. It is only sold-out media trying to control downfall of PMLN and bringing concept of hung parliament over and over again to play with voters minds.

 

[mubarik Shah]

If no NRO and elections are free and fair, it will be a landslide victory for PTI.

PMLN will be wiped out of Punjab all the way down to 20 seats.

There will be NO HUNG parliament. It is only sold-out media trying to control downfall of PMLN and bringing concept of hung parliament over and over again to play with voters minds.

The ground reality is that the people of Pakistan and in particularly Punjab are fed up of Noon League. They want to see the CHANGE.
Noon plot is to create hype through electronic media of pre-poll rigging. They are sending their people in the hiding blaming GOVT. for the act, the same they did during the last elections.

 

[c'estmoi]

If PTI don't cross the mark of 115, it will not be able to form the government and will have to sit in opposition, even 100 seats will be useless.

If PTI can get at least 100 seats, they can form governemnt. You need 137 for simple majority which they can easily achieve by getting independents, PSP, GDA, BAAP etc. However, it's better if PTI can get 115 or more.

 

[Inqalabi]

If PTI can get at least 100 seats, they can form governemnt. You need 137 for simple majority which they can easily achieve by getting independents, PSP, GDA, BAAP etc. However, it's better if PTI can get 115 or more.

inko saath milane ke liye jo Mandi lage gi, PTI usme boli nahin laga sake gi, no limit auction honi hey, PTI will be short of cash