The Panama decision is out - its not really a decision - but a short break for further evaluation of matter that the Supreme court bench could not do under its setup and jurisdiction. A JTI is formed and there is a lot of discussion going on .. so where is it heading .. there are two views about it - a pessimistic and an optimistic view:
Pessimistic view:
It was all a pre-planned drama. Nawaz Shareef is known for punishing those who are against him and rewarding those who tow his line. Some judges were offered presidency (like Ch Iftikhar and Rafiq Tarar were) and governorship (Saeed uz zaman) or ambassadorial posts. Judges know if they bail out NS they will be duly reward in time. So NS was given an escape route in the form of JTI.
Junior officers who are directly under him and who he can be influenced a lot more easily than the judges of SC. In the next 60 days NS will tell them cock and bull stories, documents will be fabricated, false testimonials (Like Qatari letters) will be obtained and after 60 days (probably with 2 or 3 extensions leading to at least 6 months) the JTI will come to the conclusion that no evidence of wrong doing was found.
To give money trail is a more dangerous thing than not to give anything. The SC would then take another few months to come up with the same verdict that no evidence was given by NS and Co so we cannot convict him .. and he will go into the next elections all dry cleaned and get a landslide 2/3 majority - Imran will disappear and we revert back to friendly opposition of minor parties.
The army wants a corrupt and manageable NS than unmanageable Imran so they will try to orchestrate NS to survive.
Optimistic view:
The SC and the army have decided to get rid of all politicians for a while, starting with NS, and they want the nation to accept this culling. They have decided to bleed NS by a thousand cuts so that the public opinion gradually gets against him and then against all the politicians so that a different form of govt, probably a presidential form, is acceptable and people vote for it in a referendum.
To begin the process a JIT is formed and all of their findings will be "leaked" to the press in small doses to change public opinion. Even the PMLN stalwarts will turn against NS and after 60 days he will be so much humiliated that he cannot ever come back.
The next steps would be Zardari and the smaller parties. So - get ready for a very scathing attacks on NS and getting rid of him through the JIT and SC.
Its up to you which scenario you feel possible.
Pessimistic view:
It was all a pre-planned drama. Nawaz Shareef is known for punishing those who are against him and rewarding those who tow his line. Some judges were offered presidency (like Ch Iftikhar and Rafiq Tarar were) and governorship (Saeed uz zaman) or ambassadorial posts. Judges know if they bail out NS they will be duly reward in time. So NS was given an escape route in the form of JTI.
Junior officers who are directly under him and who he can be influenced a lot more easily than the judges of SC. In the next 60 days NS will tell them cock and bull stories, documents will be fabricated, false testimonials (Like Qatari letters) will be obtained and after 60 days (probably with 2 or 3 extensions leading to at least 6 months) the JTI will come to the conclusion that no evidence of wrong doing was found.
To give money trail is a more dangerous thing than not to give anything. The SC would then take another few months to come up with the same verdict that no evidence was given by NS and Co so we cannot convict him .. and he will go into the next elections all dry cleaned and get a landslide 2/3 majority - Imran will disappear and we revert back to friendly opposition of minor parties.
The army wants a corrupt and manageable NS than unmanageable Imran so they will try to orchestrate NS to survive.
Optimistic view:
The SC and the army have decided to get rid of all politicians for a while, starting with NS, and they want the nation to accept this culling. They have decided to bleed NS by a thousand cuts so that the public opinion gradually gets against him and then against all the politicians so that a different form of govt, probably a presidential form, is acceptable and people vote for it in a referendum.
To begin the process a JIT is formed and all of their findings will be "leaked" to the press in small doses to change public opinion. Even the PMLN stalwarts will turn against NS and after 60 days he will be so much humiliated that he cannot ever come back.
The next steps would be Zardari and the smaller parties. So - get ready for a very scathing attacks on NS and getting rid of him through the JIT and SC.
Its up to you which scenario you feel possible.
Last edited by a moderator:
