NA-1 Peshawar: Political Analysis

[iftikharalam]

​

In 2002, this seat of urban Peshawar was won by MMA but in 2008, in absence of PTI and JI, ANP’s Haji Ghulam Blour grabbed this seat. According to the recent surveys, PTI is most popular in KPK right now and the seat is also urban, the chances of PTI are very bright for this constituency and this seat is often counted as one of the confirm seat for PTI. People of KPK shows a trend of selecting a new party after every election and they are famous to go for change quickly and do not hesitate to vote for new options unlike other provinces and regions in Pakistan.
Competition: The real competition in this constituency will be between the three parties, ANP, JI and PTI. In case of seat adjustment between JI and PTI, there will be no chance left for ANP. PPP may have some traditional voters as they were second in 2008 but not enough for them after their 5 year performance to get them into top 3 results this time; on the other hand, the other main stream party PML N is very weak.
One of the major factor to look upon is that the voter turnaround was only 23% last time, so after the boycott of JI and PTI, most preferred to sit in their houses on the election day. This time, these people will come out and the result will be different.

Possible Result:

Even though, PTI and JI are visible popular parties in NA-1, but situation is a little tricky!! In case of a seat adjustment between PTI and JI, the candidate of these two parties will win with a doubt, either JI or PTI. In other case, if both PTI and JI will contest as rivals in this constituency votes may divide, and if PPP supports ANP here than there will be a tough fight, and there could be a chance that blour will win again with slight margin.
There are rumors that Imran Khan will contest from here. In this case, PTI chances will become brighter.

Future Scenario: If all parties take part in the next elections

1. PTI or JI
2. JI or PTI
3. ANP
4. PPP
5. PML N

I hope that the people from NA-1 on this forum can shed some more light on this analysis.

So as a PTI supporter, I hope that PPP and ANP place a separate candidate at this constituency. Please admins, it is time to start a separate forum for elections 2013, constituency wise discussion.

 

[AliAbbas]

Its safe for PTI to make alliance with JI but Blour does not stand any chance and thats final. Even the support of PPP cant win this seat for him. If PTI makes alliance then its a sure seat but even if they sont then still PTI is the favorite.

 

[pak2010]

yes you are right i hope so imran khan will be the candidate of NA 1.

 

[Pir Wahab11]

iam from peshawar and from the same NA 1 area,iam from afghan coloney near the ring road,its comes in this NA-1,for ur info,there is no chance for pti to win this seat,the main struggle will be between ANP VS JI,rest of all is just a garbage

 

[Fahad Khan 2]

S.No.	Candidate	Party	Votes	Status
1	Haji Ghulam Ahmad Bilour	Awami National Party (ANP)	44,200	Winner
2	Ayub Shah Adv	Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP)	37,651	Runner Up

 

[Fahad Khan 2]

iam from peshawar and from the same NA 1 area,iam from afghan coloney near the ring road,its comes in this NA-1,for ur info,there is no chance for pti to win this seat,the main struggle will be between ANP VS JI,rest of all is just a garbage

I dont think ANP can make difference the main struggle will be between JI and PTI.......
PK-1 to PK-11 consists in NA-1, meanwhile City District & District Peshawar.
like, Peshawar City, Cantt Area, Hayatabad and some allied villages

 

[Fahad Khan 2]

It is mostly inhabited by Hindko speaking people who are comparatively well-off.... In addition to Hindko speakers, Pakhtuns, Persians, Sikh and Christian minorities are also part of this constituency. Among Pakhtuns, Mohmand community, which strictly follows the caste system, is in majority.

It was considered to be a Muslim League stronghold but when the Muslim League split into various factions, it lost grip over its traditional constituency... and now it could be termed as anyone's constituency but JI seems to be strong here.

I believe IK is contesting from here against Ghualm Bilour - Railway Minister... It's a JI stronghold, and with the seat adjustment surely IK will win Insha'Allah.

 

[Fahad Khan 2]

So the situation of Hazara Disrtict will directly effect NA-1 Election

 

[gorgias]

این اے ون روایتی طور پر مسلم لیگ کی سیٹ جانی جاتی تھی لیکن اٹھاسی کے الیکش کے بعد یہ مسلم لیگ کے ہاتھوں سے نکل گئی ، اس کے بعد یہ سیٹ پی پی پی کے پاس آگئی اور ایک دفعہ سیٹ ایڈجسٹمنٹ کے نتیجے میں اے این پی کوملی اگلے الیکشن میں یہ سیٹ ایم ایم اے کے پاس آگئی اور آخری الیکشن میں مسلم لیگ اورپی پی پی کے پاس کوئی مناسب امیدوار نہیں تھے لیکن پی پی پی نے خوب مقابلہ کیا تھا۔
اس دفعہ صورت حال یہ ہے کہ پی پی اور نون لیگ کے پاس کوئی امیدوار نہیں ،اے این پی کی پوزیشن یہاں اچھی ہے لیکن اپنی کار کردگی کی بنا پر اے این پی کا گراف بہت نیچے جا چکا ہے۔یہ حلقہ زیادہ تر شہری علاقوں پر مشتمل ہے اور زیادہ تر ووٹر پڑھے لکھے ہیں اور روائتی یا موروثی سیاست کے خلاف ہیں۔یہاں کا طالب علم طبقہ پی ٹی آئی کے حق میں ہے جب کہ 35 سال سے زیادہ عمر کے کچھ لوگوں کا ووٹ اے این پی کو جائے گا۔اور اگر پی ٹی آئی تھوڑی محنت کرے تو یہ سیٹ اسے مل سکتی ہے۔​

 

[devilzzzprey]

i am from NA 2. I have heard Imran khan might contest from NA 1 against Ghulam Bilour who is Railway Minister. Let me mention that Bilour family is very active and involved in their own constituency. They do not leave any funeral or any marriage. But it must also be remembered that people are unemployed, there is high inflation due to which people are sick of the present government and wants change. Since the NA area although pretty congested but they are well aware, mostly business class, mostly educated as well, so i doubt if they will vote for other then PTI.

Personally i am in favor of alliance between PTI and JI, but let see what decision will be taken by PTI in this regard. I believe JI will happily agree with PTI over alliance.

NA 2, which is very urban area and highly educated constituency is a full time PTI area. I would like Imran khan to contest from NA 2 :D so that my vote is directly for Imran Khan.

 

[Zulfi Khan]

[MENTION=24857]Fahad Khan 2[/MENTION], brother, how can you with so much confidence that PTI and JI exist in this
NA 1 because in this constituency, ANP got 44,000 voted and PPP got 37,000 votes. How will
you justify your analysis while one person named:Pir Wahab 11, says that there is no chance
for PTI.

Imran Khan Zindabad vote for PTI inshallah.

 

[P4kistani]

Wah Cheetay 37,000 Votes Garbage... Me samja koi 70 hazar votes k lead hogie.. yeh lead kuch b nhi hai.. aur Dear Yeh seat na tu PPP Niklay gi aur na ANP.... Bus dua karna Election se pehle 2 cases ka pata chal jai 1 Ephedrine aur Dosra IK vs Khawaja Saraa wala.. Phir bus tamasha dekhna... k kis kis ki kahan kahan se zamanat zabt hui hai

iam from peshawar and from the same NA 1 area,iam from afghan coloney near the ring road,its comes in this NA-1,for ur info,there is no chance for pti to win this seat,the main struggle will be between ANP VS JI,rest of all is just a garbage

 

[iftikharalam]

@Fahad Khan 2, brother, how can you with so much confidence that PTI and JI exist in this
NA 1 because in this constituency, ANP got 44,000 voted and PPP got 37,000 votes. How will
you justify your analysis while one person named:Pir Wahab 11, says that there is no chance
for PTI.

Imran Khan Zindabad vote for PTI inshallah.

In an urban area, winning with just 44 thousand votes with a turn around of only 24%, the mandate is clearly fake. The whole KPK mandate in last elections is fake in the absence of JI/PTI. Above this, almost half of the votes were fake in last voter lists!! With the survey results, IK;s successful jalsas in KPK, it look very much obvious that PTI is standing on the higher ground on Peshawar seats. Even in one of the PML N forums, even noooora supporters were predicting PTI success in KPK in coming elections!!

 

[iftikharalam]

این اے ون روایتی طور پر مسلم لیگ کی سیٹ جانی جاتی تھی لیکن اٹھاسی کے الیکش کے بعد یہ مسلم لیگ کے ہاتھوں سے نکل گئی ، اس کے بعد یہ سیٹ پی پی پی کے پاس آگئی اور ایک دفعہ سیٹ ایڈجسٹمنٹ کے نتیجے میں اے این پی کوملی اگلے الیکشن میں یہ سیٹ ایم ایم اے کے پاس آگئی اور آخری الیکشن میں مسلم لیگ اورپی پی پی کے پاس کوئی مناسب امیدوار نہیں تھے لیکن پی پی پی نے خوب مقابلہ کیا تھا۔
اس دفعہ صورت حال یہ ہے کہ پی پی اور نون لیگ کے پاس کوئی امیدوار نہیں ،اے این پی کی پوزیشن یہاں اچھی ہے لیکن اپنی کار کردگی کی بنا پر اے این پی کا گراف بہت نیچے جا چکا ہے۔یہ حلقہ زیادہ تر شہری علاقوں پر مشتمل ہے اور زیادہ تر ووٹر پڑھے لکھے ہیں اور روائتی یا موروثی سیاست کے خلاف ہیں۔یہاں کا طالب علم طبقہ پی ٹی آئی کے حق میں ہے جب کہ 35 سال سے زیادہ عمر کے کچھ لوگوں کا ووٹ اے این پی کو جائے گا۔اور اگر پی ٹی آئی تھوڑی محنت کرے تو یہ سیٹ اسے مل سکتی ہے۔​

Aap Nai JI ko tu ghayab hi ker diya!!

 

[gorgias]

Aap Nai JI ko tu ghayab hi ker diya!!

آپ کی بات درست ہے۔ایم ایم اے کا جو امیدوار یہاں سے جیتا تھا وہ غالباً جماعت اسلامی کا تھا۔لیکن اس مرتبہ (میرے ذاتی خیال کے مطابق) جماعت اسلامی کا وہ اثر رسوخ شائد نہیں ہے۔ ​

 

[Junoon]

PTI will win the election InshAllah

 

[Pir Wahab11]

Wah Cheetay 37,000 Votes Garbage... Me samja koi 70 hazar votes k lead hogie.. yeh lead kuch b nhi hai.. aur Dear Yeh seat na tu PPP Niklay gi aur na ANP.... Bus dua karna Election se pehle 2 cases ka pata chal jai 1 Ephedrine aur Dosra IK vs Khawaja Saraa wala.. Phir bus tamasha dekhna... k kis kis ki kahan kahan se zamanat zabt hui hai

bhai sahib mai waha per paida howa ho,aur waha per rahta b ho, mai achi tarah sai janta ho,waha k logo ke demand kiya hai,how come u would say like that that pti will win 0000000000000 percent chance b pti ka nahi ban sakta merey bahi,hamara area hai apne marzi k kis ko vote de aur kis ko nahi de,tumhara is mai kiya kaam hai yar,apne area ke fiker karo,hamrey area sai ap b fiker ho jaye ok mera bhai

 

[Pir Wahab11]

S.No.	Candidate	Party	Votes	Status
1	Haji Ghulam Ahmad Bilour	Awami National Party (ANP)	44,200	Winner
2	Ayub Shah Adv	Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP)	37,651	Runner Up

ye vote ppp ko benazir ke moot ke waja sai gaye hai,aur phir jana muskil kiya k na mumkin hai,tu ye baat abi purani ho chikey hai

 

[tariqkh]

In 2002 ANP+PPP had alliance here and got 19000 votes and MMA/JI got almost 50000 votes .... PTI will face tough competition here but if IMRAN KHAN contest here than there will be clear victory. If PTI made alliance with JI than it will be clean sweep in peshawar and nowshera i.e. From NA1 peshawar to NA6 nowshera and from PK1 peshawar to PK16 nowshera.

 

[Pir Wahab11]

In an urban area, winning with just 44 thousand votes with a turn around of only 24%, the mandate is clearly fake. The whole KPK mandate in last elections is fake in the absence of JI/PTI. Above this, almost half of the votes were fake in last voter lists!! With the survey results, IK;s successful jalsas in KPK, it look very much obvious that PTI is standing on the higher ground on Peshawar seats. Even in one of the PML N forums, even noooora supporters were predicting PTI success in KPK in coming elections!!

arey bhai sahib hum waha per paida howe hai aur waha per rahtey b hai,tum tu karachi k ho,apne kaam sai kaam rako,tumhara is sai kiya hai humarey marzi k kis ko vote de aur kis ko vote nahi de,pti ka tu merey area mai dor dor tak pata b nahi chalta,itna sook hai tu merey ghar aow mai ap goma lo ga purey area mai phir pata chal jaye ga,hum jane aur hamara area jane,ooookkkkkkk