Mehrushka
Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
[h=1]Militancy on the rise in Swat[/h]By Editorial
Published: November 4, 2012
Auxiliaries of the TTP and al Qaeda will fight the coming Afghan civil war on the basis of their own ultimate objective of transforming Pakistan into a radical jihadi state. PHOTO: REUTERS/FILE
Taliban oracle Ehsanullah Ehsan says the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has made a comeback in Swat, announcing it by target-killing three members of the Swat peace committee in the last two weeks. These killings were symbolic and aimed at creating discouragement among the population of the paradisal valley, which has now become a test case for the countrys capacity to look after its people. The peace committees were formed to keep an eye on the absconding militants return and to let the army know about their presence.
The TTPs message is: we are making a comeback and we still have allies among the people of Swat who want the warlord Fazlullah back in control. Of course, it does not matter what the people of Swat really want; it is a matter of creating an environment of fear through killings, affecting their behaviour as citizens in favour of the pre-2009 regime run on extortion. Unfortunately, their high-profile attempt on the life of Malala Yousufzai has not produced the kind of consensus it should have in the establishment, which indicates the extent to which Pakistan is vulnerable to rule-by-terror.
The army in Swat is doing its job of keeping the valley and its adjoining areas pacified, in order to give a chance to rehabilitation of normal administration and economic life. When Fazlullah and his men were hunted down three years ago, the army was not able to prevent their escape into the Afghan province of Kunar, where the Taliban joined up with al Qaeda Arabs and the Afghan Taliban in a Wahabi environment for which Kunar is known. Another neighbour of Kunar on the Pakistani side, Bajaur, too, is subject to two-way infiltration across the border, undermining the work of pacification that the army and FC have done there.
Swat is passing through a difficult psychological transition from the trauma of living under terror, which will only succeed if return to normalcy is steady and secure under a new administration provided by the province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Fazlullah hiding in Kunar and plotting his raids from there does not want this transition to be completed. He is relying on two factors: his own ability to defy the army and send his men in from across the border and the memory of terror of the Swati population, which will not fade if the new administration is ineffective.
There is evidence to support that pockets of Afghan refugees are still surviving in parts of the valley, who could be infiltrators from Afghanistan, which normally means that Kabul is doing mischief in Pakistan, in tandem with the TTP. This fits into the overview of the terrorist battlefield presented by Interior Minister Rehman Malik: it divides the killers into three categories, first the TTP, which is the enemy of Pakistan; second the Afghan Army and intelligence, which is enemy number two; and finally, the Americans, enemy number three, who are funding the targeted killings.
This diagnosis of the trouble in Swat is problematic because of the lack of evidence that could be put before the people. For its own Afghan policy, the army is relying on the formulation that Mullah Omars Taliban (good ones) are opposed to the Pakistani Taliban (bad ones) so that the former can be relied on to give Pakistan leverage on the endgame in Afghan in 2014. What undermines this formulation is the fact that the army controls no one group, not even the Difa-e-Pakistan Council, which is currently more offended with Pakistan than with Pakistans enemies. The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, which allowed the Taliban to consolidate power in Swat appears to be gelling together again.
Pakistan is more focused on post-withdrawal Afghanistan and Indias possible pincers move there after 2014 than on controlling its non-state actors, who are clearly auxiliaries of the TTP and al Qaeda and will fight the coming Afghan civil war on the basis of their own ultimate objective of transforming Pakistan into a radical jihadi state. Pakistan needs to change its strategic thinking. And it needs help from the rest of the world also threatened with terrorism.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/460661/militancy-on-the-rise-in-swat/
Published: November 4, 2012
Taliban oracle Ehsanullah Ehsan says the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has made a comeback in Swat, announcing it by target-killing three members of the Swat peace committee in the last two weeks. These killings were symbolic and aimed at creating discouragement among the population of the paradisal valley, which has now become a test case for the countrys capacity to look after its people. The peace committees were formed to keep an eye on the absconding militants return and to let the army know about their presence.
The TTPs message is: we are making a comeback and we still have allies among the people of Swat who want the warlord Fazlullah back in control. Of course, it does not matter what the people of Swat really want; it is a matter of creating an environment of fear through killings, affecting their behaviour as citizens in favour of the pre-2009 regime run on extortion. Unfortunately, their high-profile attempt on the life of Malala Yousufzai has not produced the kind of consensus it should have in the establishment, which indicates the extent to which Pakistan is vulnerable to rule-by-terror.
The army in Swat is doing its job of keeping the valley and its adjoining areas pacified, in order to give a chance to rehabilitation of normal administration and economic life. When Fazlullah and his men were hunted down three years ago, the army was not able to prevent their escape into the Afghan province of Kunar, where the Taliban joined up with al Qaeda Arabs and the Afghan Taliban in a Wahabi environment for which Kunar is known. Another neighbour of Kunar on the Pakistani side, Bajaur, too, is subject to two-way infiltration across the border, undermining the work of pacification that the army and FC have done there.
Swat is passing through a difficult psychological transition from the trauma of living under terror, which will only succeed if return to normalcy is steady and secure under a new administration provided by the province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Fazlullah hiding in Kunar and plotting his raids from there does not want this transition to be completed. He is relying on two factors: his own ability to defy the army and send his men in from across the border and the memory of terror of the Swati population, which will not fade if the new administration is ineffective.
There is evidence to support that pockets of Afghan refugees are still surviving in parts of the valley, who could be infiltrators from Afghanistan, which normally means that Kabul is doing mischief in Pakistan, in tandem with the TTP. This fits into the overview of the terrorist battlefield presented by Interior Minister Rehman Malik: it divides the killers into three categories, first the TTP, which is the enemy of Pakistan; second the Afghan Army and intelligence, which is enemy number two; and finally, the Americans, enemy number three, who are funding the targeted killings.
This diagnosis of the trouble in Swat is problematic because of the lack of evidence that could be put before the people. For its own Afghan policy, the army is relying on the formulation that Mullah Omars Taliban (good ones) are opposed to the Pakistani Taliban (bad ones) so that the former can be relied on to give Pakistan leverage on the endgame in Afghan in 2014. What undermines this formulation is the fact that the army controls no one group, not even the Difa-e-Pakistan Council, which is currently more offended with Pakistan than with Pakistans enemies. The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, which allowed the Taliban to consolidate power in Swat appears to be gelling together again.
Pakistan is more focused on post-withdrawal Afghanistan and Indias possible pincers move there after 2014 than on controlling its non-state actors, who are clearly auxiliaries of the TTP and al Qaeda and will fight the coming Afghan civil war on the basis of their own ultimate objective of transforming Pakistan into a radical jihadi state. Pakistan needs to change its strategic thinking. And it needs help from the rest of the world also threatened with terrorism.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/460661/militancy-on-the-rise-in-swat/
