By Yaqoob Khan Bangash
The by-election in NA-120, the seat vacated by the former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif after the Panama Case judgement disqualified him, has happened. Nawaz Sharif’s wife, Kulsoom Nawaz has won, defeating her nearest rival, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PIT) Dr Yasmin Rashid by nearly 15,000 votes.
Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) won and the PTI lost, but this election result has critical lessons for both parties, as well as the electoral and political climate of Pakistan.
First, the winning margin of the PMLN has more than halved. This low margin in a traditional stronghold of the PMLN must worry its leaders. If it cannot hold on to a margin in an extremely safe seat, let alone increase it, how can they hope to hold on to marginal seats in the upcoming general elections. The low winning margin also shows that the ‘Panama to Iqama’ logic hasn’t given the dividends it was supposed to.
The GT Road rally was supposed to stir up the PMLN grassroots and was to solidify the party around a wrong done to their leader. If that logic had worked then turnout would have been higher and the winning margin greater so that PMLN’s opponents could see the strength of the party. But this did not happen. Therefore, the PMLN must think of a new strategy to connect with the voters emotionally and rationally.
Secondly, the by-election might dent the support base of Maryam Nawaz in the party. She already has a number of detractors, and this unglamorous victory will give them fodder to claim that she might not be the best person to lead the party into the next general election.
No doubt Maryam led to victory, but the expectation from a Prime Minister-in-waiting was much higher than what was delivered. That even the earlier margin was not maintained despite vigorous campaigning by Maryam might show that her appeal is limited. The PMLN had become more anti-establishment, pro-democracy and centrist under her father and her influence recently, and if she is eclipsed, the party might yet again change direction.
Thirdly, this election does not bring good news for the PTI either. Dr Yasmin Rashid obtained about 52,000 votes in 2013, and this time round she was not even able to maintain those numbers. Her door-to-door campaigning together with the best smear campaign against the Sharif family possible still led to her loss.
This means that while voters might be disenchanted by the PMLN, they have not moved towards the PTI camp either. Therefore, even if the accountability courts further tarnish the reputation of the Sharif family in the corruption cases, it is not necessary that it would translate into votes for the PTI in the next election.
The disillusioned PMLN voter might just stay at home in 2018. Hence, the PTI needs to think of a new strategy which is not simply being anti-Nawaz. For PTI to win it has to ensure that people vote for it, rather than not vote for the Nawaz League. The PTI has to still understand this major difference.
Fourthly, the lower than expected voter turnout in NA-120 shows that the rhetoric of both major parties has not resonated with the local voters. Both the PMLN and the PTI were seeing the by-election in a much larger context. For the PMLN it was a chance to show the establishment and the judiciary that the people had rejected their verdict, and for the PTI it was a battle to show that their anti-corruption stance was valid and to use the generated momentum for the next general election. The hopes of both parties were dashed in this case as the voters did not see the larger issues in such significant terms as to turn out in droves and show their strong affiliation with either side.
Fifthly, the by-election clearly showed that the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is in a very bad shape in the city of its birth. The PPP candidate came in fourth, behind the PML, PTI and the newly launched Milli Muslim League which has connections to Jamat-ud-Dawa of Hafiz Saeed. The PPP got barely 4,000 votes, making it simply an insignificant player in the constituency. The recent jalsas of PPP leader Bilawal Zardari might be doing really well across the country, but translation of large numbers of people at a rally to votes is hard, something which the PTI learnt to its peril in 2013.
The PPP is disorganised, disoriented, and disenchanted in the Punjab and needs a serious lifeline injection if it hopes to come back in any shape or form. For the moment it seems that the PPP leadership has decided to only focus on areas where it still breathes and leave the party in other areas die it slow and painful death. This election confirms this trajectory.
Sixthly, this was the first election the Milli Muslim League (MML) of Hafiz Saeed participated in, albeit unofficially. They did not get many votes, just a few thousand, but their third finish shows that they are a real electoral force. The MML is hoping to field candidates in the next general elections and so it remains to be seen if they are able to make a dent somewhere.
More generally their participation in elections, despite their leaders and their related organisations being banned in Pakistan, shows the inability of the state to prevent banned outfits from re-emerging under new names and affecting the electoral process. The MML’s existence will also not bode well for Pakistan internationally as it tries to convince major powers that it is serious about rooting out terrorist organisations.
The NA-120 election, in many ways, was a precursor of the 2018 General Elections. It has seminal lessons for all political parties, and exhibits that the voter of Pakistan is no longer the predictable voter of the past. General Elections 2018 will certainly be interesting!
The writer teaches at the IT University in Lahore. He is the author of ‘A Princely Affair: The Accession and Integration of the Princely States of Pakistan, 1947-55.’ He tweets at @BangashYK.
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