Expected Punjab Election

mabaig

Councller (250+ posts)
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Forecast of 15 seats in Punjab -
According to IRI latest survey, where PMLN is 41% and PTI is 33% as average, Ignore PPP

PML N = 48% - 47% - 46% - 45% - 44% - 43% - 42% - 41% - 40% - 39% - 38% - 37% - 36% - 35% - 34%
PTI = 26% - 27% - 28% - 29% - 30% - 31% - 32% - 33% - 34% - 35% - 36% - 37% - 38% - 39% - 40%

Forecast for total 148 seats in Punjab

PML N - 10 / 15 X 148 = 99 Seats + 15 from Close Contest = 114 Seats - Less 15 by PPP = 99 Seats
PTI - 2 / 15 X 148 = 20 Seats + 15 from Close Contest = 35 Seats - Less 15 by PPP = 20 Seats
Close Contest - 3 / 15 x 148 = 30 Seats
Assume PPP - 30 Seats (15 from each party) = 30 Seats

Please comment if some one has logical arguments
 
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Zoaib

Minister (2k+ posts)
Not very logical (or accurate) I'm afraid. I'm quite sure about one thing: PPP will NOT get more seats than PTI, while your results show otherwise. I fail to see how a difference of 8 percentage points, results in a difference of 79 seats between PML-N and PTI. Doesn't add up!
 

Zulfi Khan

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
If PTI makes allaince with JI; it will help both the parties but it depends upon the heads
of both the parties. Brothers, PML(N) got 92 seats in 2008 election when JI and PTI boycotted
the elections in 2008 and Mian Nawaz Sharif was the most popular in 2008, 79% but now he
is 62% popular.

PML(N) can not get more than 40 seats now.
PTI will get 60 seats now.
PPP will get 25 seats now
Independents will get 23 seats.

It is an expected analysis; it may be true or untrue.Imran Khan Zindabad!
 

malik1c

Senator (1k+ posts)
Hahahaha this looks like an analysis from a 3 grader who just learned multiplication [hilar]

PMLN are non existent in South Punjab and in North punjab and center there are 93 seats , from which there will be PPPP, PMLQ, PMLN, PTI, JI, Independents and shaikh rasheed's AML. Remember 9 seats in North Punjab were won by independents last elections.

This election will be something else but at present PTI is the number 1 party in Pakistan Inshallah PTI will sweep the next elections and you will have to re-learn multiplication
 

nasirzaman

Senator (1k+ posts)
If PTI makes allaince with JI; it will help both the parties but it depends upon the heads
of both the parties. Brothers, PML(N) got 92 seats in 2008 election when JI and PTI boycotted
the elections in 2008 and Mian Nawaz Sharif was the most popular in 2008, 79% but now he
is 62% popular.

PML(N) can not get more than 40 seats now.
PTI will get 60 seats now.
PPP will get 25 seats now
Independents will get 23 seats.

It is an expected analysis; it may be true or untrue.Imran Khan Zindabad!

yeh clean sweep to nahi huwa:lol:
 

malik1c

Senator (1k+ posts)
If PTI makes allaince with JI; it will help both the parties but it depends upon the heads
of both the parties. Brothers, PML(N) got 92 seats in 2008 election when JI and PTI boycotted
the elections in 2008 and Mian Nawaz Sharif was the most popular in 2008, 79% but now he
is 62% popular.

PML(N) can not get more than 40 seats now.
PTI will get 60 seats now.
PPP will get 25 seats now
Independents will get 23 seats.

It is an expected analysis; it may be true or untrue.Imran Khan Zindabad!

Sir PMLN got 68 seats in 2008 , please correct your information
 

Qureshi1975

Banned
PTI ka hashar Tahir ul Qadri ki awami tehrek ka hona hai election sai pehle rola aor election kai din rona i will give PTI not more then 8 seats PMLQ aor Sheikh Rasheed's AML 12 seats divide kerain gi
 

mabaig

Councller (250+ posts)
No reply to "malik1c" due to his 3rd grade language

Other friends to be inform that in 2008 PPP was 30%, PMLQ 23% and PML N 20% before election. PML N does not have candidates in many seats of punjab specially south area.

I do not understand the part with 33% popularity in Punjab will clean sweep and party with 41% popularity will be abolished. assume the IRI survey is correct and close to reality
 

malik1c

Senator (1k+ posts)
No reply to "malik1c" due to his 3rd grade language

Other friends to be inform that in 2008 PPP was 30%, PMLQ 23% and PML N 20% before election. PML N does not have candidates in many seats of punjab specially south area.

I do not understand the part with 33% popularity in Punjab will clean sweep and party with 41% popularity will be abolished. assume the IRI survey is correct and close to reality

It was meant as a joke sir , no foul language. I do apologies, No hard feelings i hope :)
 

alimohsan52

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
If this analysis was done during Zulfiqar Bhutto's era then it would turn out to be inaccurate. I think the political climate is that of change and this is not going to be a normal general election. So therefore the above analysis is inaccurate.
 

mabaig

Councller (250+ posts)
i do not believe that iri who says the pti is 33% in punjab are not able to understand the "political climate of change" what is being expected by the pti friends. Note that iri survey was acknowledge and posted by pti on their website
 

golmaal

Banned
If OP is talking about using probabilities, then he has to apply multi-nomial probability distribution to find the distribution of seats.

Here is a rough estimate I got using multinomial distribution (which is also just multiplying percentages with 148 if events are assumed to be independent)

PML-N: Between 49 and 75 seats (Mean 61)
PTI: Between 32 and 61 seats (Mean 49)
PPP: Between 6 and 23 (Mean 14)
Others: Between 14 and 38 (Mean 24)

However, popularity doesn't equal number of seats, so PML-N would win much more seats than 61, I guess
 

Zulfi Khan

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
@ Malik 1, brother , thanks for correction.Then PML(N) will get 30 seats in Punjab.
If PTI makes an electoral alliance with JI; it will help both the parties tremendously
in KPK,Punjab and Sindh.
 

mabaig

Councller (250+ posts)
Let us assume both parties are equally popular in Punjab, than the strong candidates will make the difference, PTI has 20-30 strong candidates who can win are will be in close contest, in whole of the Punjab. No new personality has joined PTI in last 3/4 moth, perhaps due to departure of ------

Theory of 1970 election will not be repeated again. Mumtaz Doltana was not strong leader (Like NS) in Punjab who can face the ZAB on that time. I am afraid that PTI may not face the same situation like Tahir Al Qadri in 1990 and Islamic Front in 1993. Haroon Rashid was chief compainer of Islamic Front in 1993 and he succeeded to indirectly support PPP to win the election
 

mabaig

Councller (250+ posts)
JI is not strong as before, most of the religious vote is distributed ahle Hadees to Sajid Mir / Hafize Saeed, Deobandi to Ahmad Ldhianwi / JUI F, Brelavi are not with JI. Therefore JI is not as before