ELECTION 2018- POTHOHAR REGION- CURRENT SITUATION

[Faheem Imtiaz]

NA 55 - Major Tahir Sadiq PTI Vs Sheikh Aftab Ahmad PMLN (Major Tahir Sadiq is appearing clear winner from here)

NA 56 - Major Tahir Sadiq PTI Vs Malik Sohail Kumrial PMLN (Major Tahir Sadiq winning! PMLN vote is divided as their ex MNA brother fighting independent here)

NA 57 - Shahid Khaqan Abbasi PMLN Vs Sadaqat Ali Abbasi PTI (This halqa will produce some competition this time around however at the moment 60:40 in favor of Khaqan Abbasi)

NA 58 - Ch Mohammad Azeem PTI Vs Raja Pervez Ashraf PPPP Vs Raja Javed Akhlas PMLN (This may turn out to be one of the most closely faught contest in GE 2018. A week ago Ch Azeem was looking favorite but PMLN ex MPA Shaukat Aziz Bhatti joined hands with Raja Pervez Ashraf which has made situation interesting again. Real Competition is between PTI and PPPP. Too tough to call right now.

NA 59 - Ch Nisar Ahmad (Ind) Vs Sarwar Khan (PTI) - PTI holds slight lead on this halqa at the moment but tough competition expected here as well.

NA 60 - Sheikh Rashid Ahmad (AML) Vs Hanif Abbasi (PMLN) - PTI backed Sheikh Rashid Ahmad is clear favourite here.
NA 61 - Tariq Kiani PTI Vs Malik Ibrar Ahmad PMLN - Tariq Kiani is leading here this is strongest of PTI halqas in this region he is expected to win easily

NA 62 - Sheikh Rashid Ahmad (AML) Vs Barrister Daniyal Chaudhry (PMLN) - Sheikh Rashid winning hands down here

NA 63 - Ch Nisar Ahmad (ind) vs Sarwar Khan (PTI) - Ghulam Sarwar Khan is very strong in this halqa also PTI have huge vote bank so easy win for PTI

NA 64 - Sardar Zulfiqar Ali Dullah PTI Vs Maj Tahir Iqbal PMLN - Result will depend on how much Sardar Ghulam Abbas supports PTI candidate here mixed reports coming from this halqa so i will not predict any thing here

NA 65 - Ch Pervez Elahi (PMLQ) Vs Fayaz Tamman PMLN - PTI + PMLQ nexus was already strong here but after Sardar Mansoor Hayat Tamman Group left PMLN they dont stand a chance from here. It is expected that Sardar Mansoor Hayat Tamman will be PTI candidate from this constituency in By Election.

NA 66 - Ch Farrukh Altaf PTI Vs Ch Nadeem Khadim PMLN- Contrary to Popular Perception CH Farrukh Altaf is quite strong here due to his very strong MPA pannel. PMLN made mistake giving all three tickets to same family.

NA 67 - Fawad Ch PTI Vs Raja Matloob Mehdi - Mismanagement in Jehlum Jalsa gave the impression that PTI is not strong here but it is not the case. A day later Fawad Ch Hold 3 big jalsas in constituency and inserted his position again. He is winning handsomely from this constituency. This will turn in to three way fight PTI may suffer at the hands of Ch Saqlain independent however Ch Saqlain has very little chances to win he may divide votes and give benefits to PMLN. PMLN is facing similar issues on ticket distribution as well. At the moment i think Ch Fawad is winning this seat

OVERALL - TOTAL SEATS - 13
LEANING PTI + ALLIES - 10
LEANING PMLN - 0
CLOSE CONTEST - 3 SEATS

 

[lahoria84]

Nice effort

I think NA 57 still belongs to PMLN and until Abbasi is dethroned I won’t bet against him

All media reports still point to Nisar being very strong on NA 59 but then again the media has no clue when it comes to actual position on the ground

Can someone do a detail analysis of Islamabad constituencies

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

Nice effort

I think NA 57 still belongs to PMLN and until Abbasi is dethroned I won’t bet against him

All media reports still point to Nisar being very strong on NA 59 but then again the media has no clue when it comes to actual position on the ground

Can someone do a detail analysis of Islamabad constituencies

Nice effort

I think NA 57 still belongs to PMLN and until Abbasi is dethroned I won’t bet against him

All media reports still point to Nisar being very strong on NA 59 but then again the media has no clue when it comes to actual position on the ground

Can someone do a detail analysis of Islamabad constituencies

If you see media reports they are giving Sadaqat Ali Abbasi as favorite in NA 57 to which i disagree. Every one has his own way of looking at things. Because i live in this area and my family lives in this area this is general pulse of people which i have mentioned. Allah knows the best!

 

[Realistic Change]

NA 55 - Major Tahir Sadiq PTI Vs Sheikh Aftab Ahmad PMLN (Major Tahir Sadiq is appearing clear winner from here)
NA 56 - Major Tahir Sadiq PTI Vs Malik Sohail Kumrial PMLN (Major Tahir Sadiq winning! PMLN vote is divided as their ex MNA brother fighting independent here)
NA 57 - Shahid Khaqan Abbasi PMLN Vs Sadaqat Ali Abbasi PTI (This halqa will produce some competition this time around however at the moment 60:40 in favor of Khaqan Abbasi)
NA 58 - Ch Mohammad Azeem PTI Vs Raja Pervez Ashraf PPPP Vs Raja Javed Akhlas PMLN (This may turn out to be one of the most closely faught contest in GE 2018. A week ago Ch Azeem was looking favorite but PMLN ex MPA Shaukat Aziz Bhatti joined hands with Raja Pervez Ashraf which has made situation interesting again. Real Competition is between PTI and PPPP. Too tough to call right now.
NA 59 - Ch Nisar Ahmad (Ind) Vs Sarwar Khan (PTI) - PTI holds slight lead on this halqa at the moment but tough competition expected here as well.
NA 60 - Sheikh Rashid Ahmad (AML) Vs Hanif Abbasi (PMLN) - PTI backed Sheikh Rashid Ahmad is clear favourite here.
NA 61 - Tariq Kiani PTI Vs Malik Ibrar Ahmad PMLN - Tariq Kiani is leading here this is strongest of PTI halqas in this region he is expected to win easily
NA 62 - Sheikh Rashid Ahmad (AML) Vs Barrister Daniyal Chaudhry (PMLN) - Sheikh Rashid winning hands down here
NA 63 - Ch Nisar Ahmad (ind) vs Sarwar Khan (PTI) - Ghulam Sarwar Khan is very strong in this halqa also PTI have huge vote bank so easy win for PTI
NA 64 - Sardar Zulfiqar Ali Dullah PTI Vs Maj Tahir Iqbal PMLN - Result will depend on how much Sardar Ghulam Abbas supports PTI candidate here mixed reports coming from this halqa so i will not predict any thing here
NA 65 - Ch Pervez Elahi (PMLQ) Vs Fayaz Tamman PMLN - PTI + PMLQ nexus was already strong here but after Sardar Mansoor Hayat Tamman Group left PMLN they dont stand a chance from here. It is expected that Sardar Mansoor Hayat Tamman will be PTI candidate from this constituency in By Election.
NA 66 - Ch Farrukh Altaf PTI Vs Ch Nadeem Khadim PMLN- Contrary to Popular Perception CH Farrukh Altaf is quite strong here due to his very strong MPA pannel. PMLN made mistake giving all three tickets to same family.
NA 67 - Fawad Ch PTI Vs Raja Matloob Mehdi - Mismanagement in Jehlum Jalsa gave the impression that PTI is not strong here but it is not the case. A day later Fawad Ch Hold 3 big jalsas in constituency and inserted his position again. He is winning handsomely from this constituency. This will turn in to three way fight PTI may suffer at the hands of Ch Saqlain independent however Ch Saqlain has very little chances to win he may divide votes and give benefits to PMLN. PMLN is facing similar issues on ticket distribution as well. At the moment i think Ch Farrukh Altaf is winning this seat.

OVERALL - TOTAL SEATS - 13
LEANING PTI + ALLIES - 10
LEANING PMLN - 0
CLOSE CONTEST - 3 SEATS

I concur with your view. Except my team's calculations are as follows:

OVERALL - TOTAL SEATS - 13
LEANING PTI + ALLIES - 9
LEANING PMLN - 1
CLOSE CONTEST - 3 SEATS

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

I concur with your view. Except my team's calculations are as follows:

OVERALL - TOTAL SEATS - 13
LEANING PTI + ALLIES - 9
LEANING PMLN - 1
CLOSE CONTEST - 3 SEATS

Which seat is leaning towards PMLN as per your team??

 

[lahoria84]

NA 57 has changed a bit so that can impact the results as well and the panel under Sadaqat Abbasi is strong so there might be a chance

Btw I have read a lot about ppl absolutely hating Farukh Altaf so that might hurt PTI chances

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

NA 57 has changed a bit so that can impact the results as well and the panel under Sadaqat Abbasi is strong so there might be a chance

Btw I have read a lot about ppl absolutely hating Farukh Altaf so that might hurt PTI chances

Yes social media warriors hate him! But ground situation is he has very strong bradari support!

 

[lahoria84]

I want to believe the PTI wave but I’m not convinced just yet but even without a big wave I see PTI getting 100 seats based on the candidates and last election results

If there is a PTI wave then they should reach 120 seats

 

[Realistic Change]

Which seat is leaning towards PMLN as per your team??

NA57 per their calculations and momentum - this can be shifted if IK touches the halqa on 22nd or 23rd just for a brief jalsa.

 

[Realistic Change]

I want to believe the PTI wave but I’m not convinced just yet but even without a big wave I see PTI getting 100 seats based on the candidates and last election results

If there is a PTI wave then they should reach 120 seats

Again in my team's calculations on ground as myself am candidate from one of the constituencies in Southern Punjab - I can tell that our calculations (even most pessimistic) is between 99-118 - I know it's a big range of 19 seats (but these surveys and calculations were done about 7-8 Das ago) and they are updating it as I post this message but it will not be ready by end of midnight tomorrow - as it is for our own consumption and not for public but I'll post the gist of it.

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

NA57 per their calculations and momentum - this can be shifted if IK touches the halqa on 22nd or 23rd just for a brief jalsa.

If you talk with influentials of Murree and Kotli Sathian and Kallar Sayedan they will tell you PTI is winning but i dont want to put it that way. I want to give credit to Shahid Khaqan Abbasi for him being a strong candidate. Definitely i will not put this seat as leaning to PMLN however, i will not put PTI as winner here also!

 

[lahoria84]

Yeah that’s what I’m saying the worst case scenario I see is PTI getting 95-100 seats

Remember the so called wind is always more important in cities so I see PTI picking 10-15 seats extra in Lahore Karachi Faisalabad etc

I just fail to see how PTI doesn’t dominate in southern Punjab since many of the candidates who came to PTI won as independents by beating PMLN ticket holders in 2013 and now they can’t win with PTI vote bank!

I just hate this media at times at least be rational about it or if you are going to say things have changed then at least tell us why

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

Yeah that’s what I’m saying the worst case scenario I see is PTI getting 95-100 seats

Remember the so called wind is always more important in cities so I see PTI picking 10-15 seats extra in Lahore Karachi Faisalabad etc

I just fail to see how PTI doesn’t dominate in southern Punjab since many of the candidates who came to PTI won as independents by beating PMLN ticket holders in 2013 and now they can’t win with PTI vote bank!

I just hate this media at times at least be rational about it or if you are going to say things have changed then at least tell us why

No matter what media tells you PTI is getting 32-35 seats out of 49 from Southern Punjab. With 2 seats going to Jamshed Dasti as well!

 

[Birdie101]

Saw NA 67 analysis on dunya and Fawad was losing with double digits.His cousin was said to be more in favorable situation cause he is doing minat tarla to people who are angry.And, Abassi will easily win his seat.There is no competition whatsoever.Muree jalsa before was even more emberessing than Jehlum jalsa.

 

[Realistic Change]

Yeah that’s what I’m saying the worst case scenario I see is PTI getting 95-100 seats

Remember the so called wind is always more important in cities so I see PTI picking 10-15 seats extra in Lahore Karachi Faisalabad etc

I just fail to see how PTI doesn’t dominate in southern Punjab since many of the candidates who came to PTI won as independents by beating PMLN ticket holders in 2013 and now they can’t win with PTI vote bank!

I just hate this media at times at least be rational about it or if you are going to say things have changed then at least tell us why

Southern and Northern Punjab are doing awesome for us. In Central Punjab many PMLN Burj will be dethroned. Mark it. InSouthern Punjab I can tell you myself that we will win 30 for sure - a lot will depend on polling day management and it can increase as well.

What people are not realizing is that we will be getting at least 26-28 Baghi MNA's from PMLN also from Central Punjab lead by Independent who eventually will not be required (for formation of Govt but for changes to constitution only) but would lend a hand to let us reach 2/3rd majority when making critical changes in the constitution to move ahead on our manifesto. That group lead by an influential independent is added benefit that we will be getting.

 

[lahoria84]

I’m not worried about southern Punjab but definitely still holding my breath on divisions such as Gujrawala, Sialkot, sheikhupura, and Kasur

Lahore I believe will give massive shocks to PMLN and I firmly believe PTI will end up winning more seats than PMLN in Lahore

 

[Birdie101]

Yeah that’s what I’m saying the worst case scenario I see is PTI getting 95-100 seats

Remember the so called wind is always more important in cities so I see PTI picking 10-15 seats extra in Lahore Karachi Faisalabad etc

I just fail to see how PTI doesn’t dominate in southern Punjab since many of the candidates who came to PTI won as independents by beating PMLN ticket holders in 2013 and now they can’t win with PTI vote bank!

I just hate this media at times at least be rational about it or if you are going to say things have changed then at least tell us why

PTI has the edge over pml-n cause they already are gaining majority of seats in Sindh, KPK, South Punjab.PML-N can't even compare to them there.So, When they enter centeral punjab which is indeed a pml-n strong hold they are already in lead and even if they win 35 seats there pml-n will be finished.

 

[lahoria84]

Southern and Northern Punjab are doing awesome for us. In Central Punjab many PMLN Burj will be dethroned. Mark it.

What people are not realizing is that we will be getting at least 26-28 Baghi MNA's from PMLN also from Central Punjab lead by Independent who eventually will not be required (for formation of Govt but for changes to constitution only) but would lend a hand to let us to reach 2/3rd majority when making critical changes in the constitution to move ahead on our manifesto. That group lead by an influential independent is added benefit that we will be getting.

To be honest don’t really want to make a forward block in PMLN to make the govt but if we are already forming govt without them then no harm in using them for constitutional changes

Dunya analysis is all over the place and not very accurate. It’s pretty simple actually just see the results of bye elections in Jehlam and ask yourself if PTI can’t overcome that minor difference

 

[Realistic Change]

To be honest don’t really want to make a forward block in PMLN to make the govt but if we are already forming govt without them then no harm in using them for constitutional changes

Dunya analysis is all over the place and not very accurate. It’s pretty simple actually just see the results of bye elections in Jehlam and ask yourself if PTI can’t overcome that minor difference

Those members of PMLN are already Baghi :) (actual issue is that PMLN MNA cannot survive without being in power - just imagine them without Provincial or Fed Govt., they CANNOT remain in opposition AT ALL) and we dont need them to form the govt but as I stated twice above they will support us to reach 2/3rd if and when required

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

Saw NA 67 analysis on dunya and Fawad was losing with double digits.His cousin was said to be more in favorable situation cause he is doing minat tarla to people who are angry.And, Abassi will easily win his seat.There is no competition whatsoever.Muree jalsa before was even more emberessing than Jehlum jalsa.

Wait and See! What TV analyst usually do they go to particular areas ask 1000 / 2000 people and make report. But with these constituency with long span of villages alot depends on village voters.!