ELECTION 2018 - EXPECTED RESULTS - REGION WISE

[Faheem Imtiaz]

Asslam o Allaikum!

I am starting this threat just to understand current political situation from the eye of common people. I am posting here expected results of North Punjab region. This is purely our assessment based on our interaction with people and General Trends in the area. I would request other members to please give their independent analysis of their region also. Please keep it away from any sort of bias. Here is my understanding of North Region after allocation of tickets:

NA 52 Isbd -1 - Khurram Shehzad - PTI ) - PTI own vote bank
NA 53 Isbd 2 - Imran Ahmad Khan Niazi - PTI - PMLN is not even able to field strong candidate from here
NA 54 Isbd 3 - Asad Umar PTI - No explanation required here

NA 55 (Attock 1) Major Tahir Sadiq PTI (Only problem for PTI here was Amin Aslam Khan getting angry but he is with party and fully supporting + alot of PMLN defections also joined although even if they would nt have Major would have won on his own + PTI votes.

NA 56 (Attock 2) Major Tahir Sadiq PTI very strong here PTI also have huge vote bank.
NA 57 (Rawalpindi) - Shahid Khaqan Abbasi - PMLN - PTI can give tough fight here but as of now Khaqan Abbasi is winning this seat
NA 58 (Rawalpindi-2) - Ch Mohammad Azeem PTI - Even if there is a surprize in the const it will be PPPP winning
NA 59 (Rawalpindi-3) - Ch Nisar Ahmad (Ind) - Bad selection of candidate by PTI otherwise this would have been a tough fight
NA 60 (Rawalpindi - 4) Sheikh Rashid Ahmad - Rawalpindi City Sheikh is very popular + PTI votes
NA 61 (Rawalpindi-5) Amir Kayani PTI- This constituency has total PTI vote Amir will win because of Nawaz Sharef and Malik ABrar
NA 62 (Rawalpindi-6) Sheikh Rashid - Very popular here + weak candidate by PMLN
NA 63 (Ghulam Sarwar Khan- PTI) - He won it last time also PTI is very very strong here
NA 64 (Chakwal - 1 Sardar Ghulam Abbas - PTI ) - He is very popular and was expected PMLN candidate but refused for NS anti army comments. Now in PTI and winning hands down PMLN dont have candidate here even i think.

NA 65 (Chakwal - 2 - CH Pervez Elalhi-PMLQ) - After Sardar Tamman left PMLN dont have candidate here. If he would have joined PTI earlier no seat adjustment was necesary on this seat. Anyways this seat will go to PTI ally)
NA 66 (Jehlum-1) ( Cant Predict) - Tough Fight here after candidate controversy
NA 67 (Jehlum-2) ( Fawad Chaudhry - PTI) - PMLN lost ground here because of NS anti Army bayania

Overall Total Seats National Assembly = 14
PTI and Allies Winning = 12
PMLN Winning = 1
Independent Winning = 1 (Ch Nisar i think he will rejoin PMLN after winning)

 

[Ali.Pakistani]

South Punjab also looks promising for PTI. Let's see...

 

[Shah Shatranj]

PTI should forget all three seats of islamabad because of dharna and taliban right wing politics

 

[kakajee]

Khaqan Abbasi has been disqualified from NA-57 as of now. Dont know if he can come back in review petetion or not.

But if he doesnt, PTI will surely win this seat

 

[Jalil Malik]

Assumption

 

[Shah Shatranj]

Islamabad is a city of educated people, A lot of pathan also reside there.Btw, In local body election pti won 15 seats while pml-n won 21 seats so chawal na maro.PTI have the obvious edge here.Both Imran Khan and Asad Umar seats are very strong.

in general election trend does not remain same .... PTI will lose all educated ppl seats because of their pro taliban policies you will witness PTI defeat in all posh areas of pakistan

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

Yei kia chawal maar rahe ho.Na 62 mein Hanif Abbassi bohat mazboot hei.Yei Imran ka halqa tha pahlei lekin us nei aik din bhi chakar nahi lagai.Hanif nei logo sei contact rakha aur sara kaam karai so it will be very difficult seat for pti to win.Na 60 is a safe bet for sheikh.

Bhai sb men usi halqay men rehta hun mera ghar ha Chaman Zar Colony men. Yahan sa PTI sheikh Rashid k ilawa agarFayaz Chauhan ko ticket daitay na wo bhe jeet jata.

Haneef Abbasi compete kary ga lekin jeetna ka qareeb qareb koi chance nahe. Dusra halqa jis men Daniyal CH ha wo to bilkul e farigh banda. I think mene halqay thora mix kar diya Daniyal Ch is very week compared with SR. Anyways jeetna in dono sa SR na e ha!

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

in general election trend does not remain same .... PTI will lose all educated ppl seats because of their pro taliban policies you will witness PTI defeat in all posh areas of pakistan

Can you please even tell me name of other party candidates from ISbd they could not find any. PMLN have to field Khaqan Abbasi, PPP only have Khokhars here or un logo sa log jitni nafrat karty hen aap ki soch ha. Wait and see

 

[Shah Shatranj]

Can you please even tell me name of other party candidates from ISbd they could not find any. PMLN have to field Khaqan Abbasi, PPP only have Khokhars here or un logo sa log jitni nafrat karty hen aap ki soch ha. Wait and see

But thing is PTI will lose its traditional left wing vote because of its right wing policies ,,, Imran Khan's secular image was the only thing for his support is posh areas . This time they will not be able to attract that vote ... PPP has traditional and pmln has also in low turn out no chance for pti

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

But thing is PTI will lose its traditional left wing vote because of its right wing policies ,,, Imran Khan's secular image was the only thing for his support is posh areas . This time they will not be able to attract that vote ... PPP has traditional and pmln has also in low turn out no chance for pti

Thats your assumption but not ground realities Imran Khan never had secular image. He was always kind of pro Taliban remember people used to cll him Taliban Khan. ANd honestly he has been proven right in that stance. In 2010 - 2011 he arranged sit ins against drone strikes as well. What i am telling is ground reality as of today.

 

[Shah Shatranj]

Thats your assumption but not ground realities Imran Khan never had secular image. He was always kind of pro Taliban remember people used to cll him Taliban Khan. ANd honestly he has been proven right in that stance. In 2010 - 2011 he arranged sit ins against drone strikes as well. What i am telling is ground reality as of today.

That is your PTI favor speaking in you not the actual reality ..... The voter you expecting from upper class with policies of opening taliban office , funds to madarass etc is not going to happen ........

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

That is your PTI favor speaking in you not the actual reality ..... The voter you expecting from upper class with policies of opening taliban office , funds to madarass etc is not going to happen ........

Yes i do favor PTI but my anaysis is not based on that favor these areas we walk around day in day out. Anyways just wait and see. If you are thinking Isbd upper class is liberal please remember Jamat i Islami won both seats from here in 2002 and they won one seat in 2008 also. Still they hold good vote bank here. It seems as if you dont belong to this area you are ignoring any local factors in your comments

 

[Shah Shatranj]

Yes i do favor PTI but my anaysis is not based on that favor these areas we walk around day in day out. Anyways just wait and see. If you are thinking Isbd upper class is liberal please remember Jamat i Islami won both seats from here in 2002 and they won one seat in 2008 also. Still they hold good vote bank here. It seems as if you dont belong to this area you are ignoring any local factors in your comments

in 2008 ji did boycott of election .... I don't say that all vote bank but the pti vote in all posh areas will be affected by ik right wing policies that is the point you will have to agree with me

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

in 2008 ji did boycott of election .... I don't say that all vote bank but the pti vote in all posh areas will be affected by ik right wing policies that is the point you will have to agree with me

No need to discuss this any further just wait and see. 25th July is not far away. My prediction All 3 seats from Isbd for PTI

 

[farooqak]

this survey is just random guessing

 

[kayawish]

in 2008 ji did boycott of election .... I don't say that all vote bank but the pti vote in all posh areas will be affected by ik right wing policies that is the point you will have to agree with me

you know what 4 you all people from FATA are talibans but dont forget today this shiity azad kashmir which u have is also because of these so called taliban masud tribe with other tribal fighters took it warna punjabion main dum nahin hai.

 

[morpheus]

Fawad ant ghulam Abbas have been disqualified, a big loss to PTI
What are the legal chances of having them back? And who are covering candidates?
Same question for shahid Khaqan disqualification from murree?

Faheem plz answer as you have a good local knowledge, thanks

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

this survey is just random guessing

Brother this is not any professionally conducted survey but analysis based on ground situation and watching public trends.

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

Fawad ant ghulam Abbas have been disqualified, a big loss to PTI
What are the legal chances of having them back? And who are covering candidates?
Same question for shahid Khaqan disqualification from murree?

Faheem plz answer as you have a good local knowledge, thanks

Well i dont think PTI have strong covering candidates here, but these dis qualifications will be rectified at the end and these people will contest elections at the end. PMLN also dont have any strong covering candidate for Khaqan Abbasi. This will not be a big issue i think i remember in last election they disqualified almost every one but at the end all of them contested.

 

[Rana Javed Iqbal Khan]

Fawad ant ghulam Abbas have been disqualified, a big loss to PTI
What are the legal chances of having them back? And who are covering candidates?
Same question for shahid Khaqan disqualification from murree?

Faheem plz answer as you have a good local knowledge, thanks

All three , Fawad, Abbasi & Sardar Ghulam Abbas have been disqualified by same judge on weak grounds and will be restored by High court. But they may not be able to get party symbol and have to go as independent candidate.