5 Reasons Why MQM Defeat in Karachi is Not a Surprise

[iftikharalam]

Many Punjab based anchors and journalists claim that the PTI emergence party in Karachi is the biggest surprise of the 2018 election, but is it really the case. Is it really a surprise?

I don't think so. As an urdu speaking who lived in Karachi for more than three decades now, it is not a surprise at all. In fact, if someone can pull my previous posts on this forum, I always maintained that MQM will lose majority of its seats in case of completely free and fair elections.

Here are 5 reasons why PTI 14 seats in Karachi are just a normal outcome.

1. No Thappa Mafia

Everyone living in Karachi knows that last two elections were heavily rigged, because of which the MQM mandate was ballooned. The head of MQM's election wing, Hammad Siddiquie along with most of his team members (aks Thappa Brigade), who systematically rigged elections 2008 and 2013, are either in jail or outside the country.

Here is one example of the extent of rigging in previous elections.

The Interesting Case of NA 242

Anyone who lives in Karachi knows this is the outskirt area of Karachi, and the areas mentioned in the above map are Pashtun or Sindhi dominated areas. For example, Al-Asif Square is known for its overwhelming Pashtun population, same is the case with Quetta Town. There are Goths as well as well as Noor Muhammad Village, that are dominated by Sindhis. The other areas are mix population, with urdu speaking probably making around 10% of the total population. As the population is mostly newly settled immigrants from other parts of Pakistan, the number of registered voters is also very low.

Against the population of around 7.5 lacs, only 1.8 lacs are registered voters, while in other constituencies in the center of Karachi, the registered voters against the same population is more than 4 lacs.

Anyway, now the interesting thing. In 2013, MQM'c candidate won by more than 1 lac votes from a constituency where urdu speaking are no more than 10%, which means almost 60% of the registered voters, that will be Pashtuns, Baluchs, Sindhis, all voted for MQM.

In 2018, MQM candidate won only 6k votes. YES, READ IT AGAIN. Without Thappa brigade, the party that won more than 1 lac, now won only 6k votes, and were 5th on the list, after PTI, followed by PPPP, followed by MMA, followed by PML N. FIFTH.

This was the extent of Thappa Brigade in Karachi before 2018 elections.

2. The Demographic Shift

What you have witnessed in 2018, is just the beginning. MQM's downfall just started, as MQM support base is shrinking for various reasons, and one of which is shrinking urdu speaking population in the city.

According to 1998 census, urdu speaking made 49% of the total population in Karachi. However, in the last two decades, with rapid immigration from tribal areas, KPK, interior Sindh, Southern Punjab, and emigration of urdu speaking to foreign countries as well as to Islamabad, shifted the demographic balance.

According to my own estimates, urdu speaking population in Karachi as a segment is reduced between 35% to 40%. With Pashtuns as the second largest population group, followed by Punjabis and Sindhis.

With urdu speaking having lower fertility rate, and a stream of emigration to other countries will continue to decline.

This also indicates that no party in Karachi can win based on the ethnic based politics. This is how PTI won, because they have vote bank in every community living in Karachi, but MQM vote bank is concentrated within already shrinking population.

3. Educated Urdu Speaking No More Vote for MQM

If you look into the election results, you will notice PTI won from areas where Pashtuns have significant numbers, or middle and upper-middle class areas that have high percentage of urdu speaking community, like Gulshan, Buffer zone, Noazimabad, Gulberg, Airport areas, and even Azizabad. All these areas are middle or upper-middle class areas with high ratio of Urdu Speaking. The rich and wealthy areas of DHA and Clifton already voted for PTI in 2013, and the difference of votes only increased this year.

This shows that educated urdu speaking are no longer voting for MQM. The remaining 4 NA seats of MQM are from areas that are considered lower-middle class areas.

4. Barelvi Urdu Speaking Leaves MQM for TLP

In karachi, there is also an urdu speaking vote bank of Jamaat e Islami, but they consisted of Deoband or Ahl e hadith urdu speaking people, while religious barelvi urdu speaking mostly kept attached with MQM, but not this time.

The rise of TLP I believe hurt MQM the most, as TLP vote count is surprising in Karachi. In fact, TLP managed to win two provincial assembly seats from Karachi only. And when you look into it, the vote count of TLP is higher in urdu speaking areas compared to Pashtun areas.

In NA 237, TLP secured more votes than MQM.

In NA 239, Shah Faisal colony, Model Colony area, densely populated urdu speaking constituency, MQM lost against PTI by only 300 votes, and guess what, TLP secured 30k votes from here. Almost all barelvi urdu speaking vote.

In NA 241, Korangi 3 seat where MQM lost by 3,000 votes, TLP won around 20k votes, mostly urdu speaking vote.

In NA 246, TLP secured more votes than both MQM and PPP.

In NA 247, TLP secured more votes than MQM.

In NA 249, TLP secured more votes than MQM.

5. Boycott, Boycott

Also keep this in mind, that a retard named Altaf Hussain is still popular in hardline MQM followers, and he said "Boycott.. Boycott, Bachai bhi karain .. Boycott, Burhai bhi karain, Boycott, Boycott, aurtain bhi karain, Boycott, aadmi bhi karain, Boycott"..

Even though, based on the final voting percentage that doesn't have much impact, but I still believe that it contributed to 3k-5k vote loss for MQM Pakistan.

Conclusion

When your vote base derived from a shrinking segment of population, and you used to win using Thappa brigade, and out of that vote base, that is urdu speaking, deo band and ahl e hadith relgious vote banks vote for MMQ (JI), barelivi religious vote bank vote for TLP, and educated urdu speaking vote for PTI, you can't win elections, and that is NOT A SURPRISE.

 

[Modest]

Very good & informative analysis, thanks for enlightening us.

 

[MHAMZA]

@thread starter Please also so suggest what PTI should do to come up to the expectations of the people of Karachi including Liyari

 

[Unlettered]

Many Punjab based anchors and journalists claim that the PTI emergence party in Karachi is the biggest surprise of the 2018 election, but is it really the case. Is it really a surprise?

It is not just Punjab based anchors, but anchors as a whole. I remember that idiot Dr. Danish gave MQM/PSP around 18 seats from Karachi in his analysis and Dr. Shahid was about the same.

I don't think so. As an urdu speaking who lived in Karachi for more than three decades now, it is not a surprise at all. In fact, if someone can pull my previous posts on this forum, I always maintained that MQM will lose majority of its seats in case of completely free and fair elections.

I dont agree, even Ali Zaidi from PTI said that we'll have good a fight on 10-12 seats so 14 seats was a surprise.

Here are 5 reasons why PTI 14 seats in Karachi are just a normal outcome.

1. No Thappa Mafia

Everyone living in Karachi knows that last two elections were heavily rigged, because of which the MQM mandate was ballooned. The head of MQM's election wing, Hammad Siddiquie along with most of his team members (aks Thappa Brigade), who systematically rigged elections 2008 and 2013, are either in jail or outside the country.

Here is one example of the extent of rigging in previous elections.

The Interesting Case of NA 242

Anyone who lives in Karachi knows this is the outskirt area of Karachi, and the areas mentioned in the above map are Pashtun or Sindhi dominated areas. For example, Al-Asif Square is known for its overwhelming Pashtun population, same is the case with Quetta Town. There are Goths as well as well as Noor Muhammad Village, that are dominated by Sindhis. The other areas are mix population, with urdu speaking probably making around 10% of the total population. As the population is mostly newly settled immigrants from other parts of Pakistan, the number of registered voters is also very low.

Against the population of around 7.5 lacs, only 1.8 lacs are registered voters, while in other constituencies in the center of Karachi, the registered voters against the same population is more than 4 lacs.

Anyway, now the interesting thing. In 2013, MQM'c candidate won by more than 1 lac votes from a constituency where urdu speaking are no more than 10%, which means almost 60% of the registered voters, that will be Pashtuns, Baluchs, Sindhis, all voted for MQM.

In 2018, MQM candidate won only 6k votes. YES, READ IT AGAIN. Without Thappa brigade, the party that won more than 1 lac, now won only 6k votes, and were 5th on the list, after PTI, followed by PPPP, followed by MMA, followed by PML N. FIFTH.

This was the extent of Thappa Brigade in Karachi before 2018 elections.

Agreed, the absence of thappa mafia was one of the main reasons.

2. The Demographic Shift

What you have witnessed in 2018, is just the beginning. MQM's downfall just started, as MQM support base is shrinking for various reasons, and one of which is shrinking urdu speaking population in the city.

According to 1998 census, urdu speaking made 49% of the total population in Karachi. However, in the last two decades, with rapid immigration from tribal areas, KPK, interior Sindh, Southern Punjab, and emigration of urdu speaking to foreign countries as well as to Islamabad, shifted the demographic balance.

According to my own estimates, urdu speaking population in Karachi as a segment is reduced between 35% to 40%. With Pashtuns as the second largest population group, followed by Punjabis and Sindhis.

With urdu speaking having lower fertility rate, and a stream of emigration to other countries will continue to decline.

This also indicates that no party in Karachi can win based on the ethnic based politics. This is how PTI won, because they have vote bank in every community living in Karachi, but MQM vote bank is concentrated within already shrinking population.

I don't agree with you at all on this.

3. Educated Urdu Speaking No More Vote for MQM

If you look into the election results, you will notice PTI won from areas where Pashtuns have significant numbers, or middle and upper-middle class areas that have high percentage of urdu speaking community, like Gulshan, Buffer zone, Noazimabad, Gulberg, Airport areas, and even Azizabad. All these areas are middle or upper-middle class areas with high ratio of Urdu Speaking. The rich and wealthy areas of DHA and Clifton already voted for PTI in 2013, and the difference of votes only increased this year.

This shows that educated urdu speaking are no longer voting for MQM. The remaining 4 NA seats of MQM are from areas that are considered lower-middle class areas.

It was always the case, nothing new this time.

4. Barelvi Urdu Speaking Leaves MQM for TLP

In karachi, there is also an urdu speaking vote bank of Jamaat e Islami, but they consisted of Deoband or Ahl e hadith urdu speaking people, while religious barelvi urdu speaking mostly kept attached with MQM, but not this time.

The rise of TLP I believe hurt MQM the most, as TLP vote count is surprising in Karachi. In fact, TLP managed to win two provincial assembly seats from Karachi only. And when you look into it, the vote count of TLP is higher in urdu speaking areas compared to Pashtun areas.

In NA 237, TLP secured more votes than MQM.

In NA 239, Shah Faisal colony, Model Colony area, densely populated urdu speaking constituency, MQM lost against PTI by only 300 votes, and guess what, TLP secured 30k votes from here. Almost all barelvi urdu speaking vote.

In NA 241, Korangi 3 seat where MQM lost by 3,000 votes, TLP won around 20k votes, mostly urdu speaking vote.

In NA 246, TLP secured more votes than both MQM and PPP.

In NA 247, TLP secured more votes than MQM.

In NA 249, TLP secured more votes than MQM.

The dissection of bharelvi votes was not a new phenomena in Karachi so it is debatable but I'll give you that, TLP really did good.

5. Boycott, Boycott

Also keep this in mind, that a retard named Altaf Hussain is still popular in hardline MQM followers, and he said "Boycott.. Boycott, Bachai bhi karain .. Boycott, Burhai bhi karain, Boycott, Boycott, aurtain bhi karain, Boycott, aadmi bhi karain, Boycott"..

Even though, based on the final voting percentage that doesn't have much impact, but I still believe that it contributed to 3k-5k vote loss for MQM Pakistan.

After the absence of thappa, boycott was one of the main reasons for PTI's victory, I fully agree with you on that.

 

[iftikharalam]

@thread starter Please also so suggest what PTI should do to come up to the expectations of the people of Karachi including Liyari

I don't think PTI can do much as the Sindh government remains with PPP.
So, they can't do anything related to heath, education, and even police reforms, as they all fall under provincial government.

Here are my suggestions for PTI, and I really hope they do this.

Start Federal projects, that MUST include:

> Circular Railway Project. There was once a circular railway in Karachi, but now the rails are littered with garbage. Japanese company came up with an impressive plan, but PPP commission made them run away. As PTI will have railway ministry, they must work on circular railway project like metro train project. There is not a lot of investment as basic infrastucture is already there. Another mean of transportation reduces the load on Karachi roads, that are always jam packed.

Also try to finish the green line project asap.

> Start 10 billion Tree Tsunami project from Karachi. There is a lot of railway and other federal land in Karachi that can be used. Karachi is the 5th most polluted city in the world. We need more TREES. Many of the educated urdu speaking voted for PTI because of billion tree project in KPK, hoping for the same for Karachi.

> Start K2 project, a project to convert ocean water into drinkable water. This would ease the issue of water shortage. I am amazed, why a project that was started by Naimatullah when he way mayor still not completed.

In addition, they also need to start their offices and facilitate vote registration process, especially in Pashtun population. There are millions in Karachi who are living in Karachi for years, but there vote is still registered in KPK. With new offices, start voter facilitation center, and convince them to register their votes in Karachi, where they are settled. Another million new voters into Karachi voters, and believe me, MQM can't win a single seat.

 

[Imran is the best]

Fear is gone bhata mafia gone and no hijacking and rigging allowed. Mafia pmln didn’t want army ppp mqm all loser parties didn’t want army inside because they have been winning on rigging and high jacking polling stations.

 

[The Pakistani]

Please open up "Baldia Factory" Case and finish the remianing Germs as well..

 

[Anonymous Paki]

mqm will be completely wiped out by next elections

 

[c'estmoi]

How do these politicians keep their faces straight knowing they won by rigging

 

[iftikharalam]

I don't agree with you at all on this.

What does you not agree to. It is not my opinion, it is a FACT. Urdu speaking segment of population is shrinking in Karachi due to continuous immigration from other parts of Pakistan, which is an ESTABLISHED FACT. What is there to not agree to?

 

[Unlettered]

What does you not agree to. It is not my opinion, it is a FACT. Urdu speaking segment of population is shrinking in Karachi due to continuous immigration from other parts of Pakistan, which is an ESTABLISHED FACT. What is there to not agree to?

What fact, care to share any sources? and why are you continuously using the words immigration for Pakistanis anyway? people from various communities comes to and go from Karachi all the time, its not a new phenomena as you suggested.

 

[iftikharalam]

What fact, care to share any sources? and why are you continuously using the words immigration for Pakistanis anyway? people from various communities comes to and go from Karachi all the time, its not a new phenomena as you suggested.

I don't think you have visited Karachi for a long time. The demographic of Karachi has changed and as someone who is living in Karachi for last 30 years, I can see that with my own eyes.

You will have your FACT when the detailed census results will be out. It is a fact that people from KPK, Southern Punjab, and Sindh have settled in Karachi in last two decades in huge number. The Malir areas are all Sindhi dominated now, there are areas like Al-asif square, Sultanabad, Baldia, and MAngho Peer, where there is almost 90-100% Pashtun populations.
New York times a couple of years ago published an article in which they claimed Karachi has the highest number of Pashtuns, even more than Peshawar and Kabul.
You don't need Fact and source for something this common and obvious. Urdu speaking has lower fertility rate, being urdu speaking myself, I know it as a FACT. Urdu speaking are migrating to other countries. In my extended family, almost 30%-40% of people have settled permanently to other countries. They are replaced by other communities settling in Karachi.
And it is immigration when someone left their area for permenantly settling in other area. In Karachi, Pashtuns are no more going back. They have even started registering votes in Karachi, which is why PTI won 14 seats.
Again, the demographic shift is a FACT. You can google it as well, there are also estimates that put urdu speaking between 40% and 43%, down from 49% in 1998 census, while Pashtuns are now estimated around 20%. This will continue to change.

 

[Unlettered]

I don't think you have visited Karachi for a long time. The demographic of Karachi has changed and as someone who is living in Karachi for last 30 years, I can see that with my own eyes.

I am in Karachi.

You will have your FACT when the detailed census results will be out. It is a fact that people from KPK, Southern Punjab, and Sindh have settled in Karachi in last two decades in huge number. The Malir areas are all Sindhi dominated now, there are areas like Al-asif square, Sultanabad, Baldia, and MAngho Peer, where there is almost 90-100% Pashtun populations.

It was always the case, ask your elders about it. Karachi was never a 100 percent Urdu speaking city, I don't know why people considers it to be. There is a reason why it is called mini Pakistan because many of the communities are here and in good numbers.

New York times a couple of years ago published an article in which they claimed Karachi has the highest number of Pashtuns, even more than Peshawar and Kabul.

Thats correct but its an old story and we have many elections since then 2002, 2008, 2013 and this one. So again its not a new phenomena else ANP would have won a considerable amount of seats.

You don't need Fact and source for something this common and obvious. Urdu speaking has lower fertility rate, being urdu speaking myself, I know it as a FACT. Urdu speaking are migrating to other countries. In my extended family, almost 30%-40% of people have settled permanently to other countries. They are replaced by other communities settling in Karachi.

I don't agree and I am Urdu speaking myself BTW.

And it is immigration when someone left their area for permenantly settling in other area. In Karachi, Pashtuns are no more going back.

Immigration: the action of coming to live permanently in a foreign country. They are Pakistanis not foreign citizens and they have every right to live where ever they want. As a matter of fact our ancestors were the immigrants if you would like.

They have even started registering votes in Karachi, which is why PTI won 14 seats.

Nobody can win that many seats from Karachi unless you have a majority chunk of support from Urdu speaking community and THAT is a fact for you.

Things have changed and they've changed for the good of Karachi.