QaiserMirza
Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
28th May Youm-e-Takbir Special: Paksitan at Cross Road Again!!
14 years ago Pakistan conducted its first successful Nuclear Tests. Whole world watched felt the shock-waves of surprise and nervousness as Pakistan bombed its way into the club of Nuclear powers. Muslim world rejoiced, while the western dominated media labeled these tests as The Islamic bomb hostile countries like Israel and India were in complete shock & awe after seeing their worst nightmare come true. As a result, Sanctions were imposed, Pakistan was roundly condemned, but nothing could have stopped Pakistanis who took to the streets in jubilation and Muslims all over the world joined them in the celebration. What compelled Pakistan to conduct nuclear test despite threats of severe sanctions and condemnation from major world powers, what were the inevitable circumstances that drove Pakistan to stand against all odds? Lets re-visit the history that defined and will continue to maneuver major changes in South-Asia, especially between India and Pakistan in years to come. This brief inspection will emphasize on why Pakistan acted in the best interest for its security by setting aside interests and concerns of its allies.
The emerging Indian threat
After three wars, 1971 intrusion and continuous occupation of Kashmir, India further elevated its intimidation against Pakistan by conducting its own nuclear tests in 1998. Following the tests, India took on, an extremely aggressive tone against Pakistan. The then Premier of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee started making thinly veiled threats, to the extent of demanding handing over Azad Kashmir or face consequences. India started bullying Pakistan in the immediate aftermath of its nuclear tests and started pushing Pakistan to accept a role subservient to its larger neighbor.
External Threats & blackmail from developed nations:
Developed nations threatened with trade and military sanctions after India tested its own nuclear weapon. USA had already halted most economic, military aid as well as F-16 shipments for which Pakistan had already paid, after the Pressler Amendment a decade earlier. Pakistan was being cornered and threatened with further sanctions. If Pakistan resisted from responding to Indias threats with its own expected nuclear tests, it was being lured and promised with more aid and access to purchase of state of the art military equipment and technology by US and world powers, in fact as a bigger role on the regional stage was being promised as well. In case Pakistan went ahead to conduct Tests, it were to face International sanctions on trade and military assistance, as well as cancelling of international aid and economic assistance programs. It was one of the biggest blackmails in recent history.
Heavily Armed Neighbors
Two of Pakistans immediate neighbours, India and China, were armed with nuclear weapons. Another one (Iran) was struggling to acquire a nuclear weapon, and a war torn country struggling to stabilize itself after a two decade long bloody conflict and occupation by another nuclear and regional power The Soviet Union. Afghanistan later became the war theatre of another nuclear power when the US occupied it in 2001. In hindsight it was a timely decision by Pakistan, which at the time had no choice but to arm itself with best defences possible including the nuclear deterrence considering our volatile and hostile neighborhood. Pakistans sole purpose for Nuclear Tests was to maintain necessary balance and deterrence especially against Hostile India; hence Pakistan needed every shield against every sword unsheathed against it. US would have never dared to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki has Japan and Germany possessed any Nuclear ability in World War II.
Pakistans Situation after Nuclear Test
After conducting its first ever nuclear test on May 28th 1998, Pakistan was isolated and imposed with all kinds of sanctions from military to economic. The Western and Indian backed media bashed Pakistan and brought it in the spotlight negatively, despite Pakistans tests being in response to those from its hostile rival and neighbour a few weeks earlier. Pakistans decision to safeguard its interest was labeled as an act of disobedience against the West.
After sanctions were imposed, certain events started turning in favour of Pakistan instead of going against it. India sobered up and started taking a much more responsible and respectful tone with Pakistan, and dropped hints that it was ready and willing to discuss all issues including Kashmir. With no aid flowing, Pakistan became more self reliant and its economy started growing, slowly and steadily. In 1997, Pakistans GDP was 1.7 while in 1998 it became 3.49 and in 1999 it was 4.18. Pakistans reputation in Islamic countries was all time high, as it had proven itself a natural military leader should a united Muslim bloc take shape. Despite Pakistan governments shameful retreat from Kargil under the orders of Bill Clinton and the subsequent coup that saw a military general take power, Pakistan moved along steadily, with the economic situation showing unexpected improvement year on year.
With the 9/11 attacks in 2001, Pakistan was once again was at the crossroads with USA. It was another do or die situation, we were told. Pakistan was told to either back the international mission to rid Afghanistan of Al Qaeda and its hosts the Taliban, or face the consequences. With India offering its bases to the US and NATO and demanding military action against Pakistan as well as Afghanistan, President Musharraf took the option of playing along the US demands and making Pakistan a frontline state in Americas War on Terror.
Aid and military assistance flowed in as Pakistan complied to US demands. Pakistans Economic situation started improving considerably in the early years of Musharrafs cooperation with the USA, a result of sound policies coupled with Western assistance. However, with the US forces distracted in Iraq from 2003 onwards, the Afghan Taliban started staging a comeback around 2004-2005 in Afghanistan, taking over province after province in Afghanistan.
In subsequent years, after blaming Pakistan for the US and NATOs failures in Pakistan, various terrorist groups sprang up in Pakistans tribal belt, with funds and weapons from Afghanistan. Pakistans military came under attack and suicide bombing increased in Pakistan. Pakistans economic growth took a major hit with the rise of domestic terrorism. Drone attacks, high-profile terror attacks on key military installations, suicide bombings in civilian centres, massacres of Pakistani soldiers at the hands of terrorists and US/NATO forces alike, threats on its nuclear assets, the return of terrorist groups in Balochistan, and covert CIA operations within Pakistan, are just some of the gifts of the US occupation of Pakistan.
With Musharraf leaving in 2008, Pakistans military leadership started turning around some of the mistakes made by allowing CIA unrestricted access, in an attempt to safeguard its national security interests. Pakistan was subsequently labeled once again a sponsor of terror, with Western media and governments openly calling for the dismantling of Pakistan armys premier intelligence agency, the ISI. Indian and US assets cultivated in Pakistans political parties have started ravaging the nation with political terrorism and corruption, while the military stands alone, with the backing of Pakistans population, in trying to reverse the losses and limit foreign influence in Pakistans key decision making. As Pakistan and the US inch towards a head on collision over Afghanistan and the planned US retreat, the stage seems set for Pakistan to take centre-stage in the regional geo-political arena and use the opportunity to solidify its national security interests in the region a position strengthened by its nuclear status, the only thing seemingly holding back its hostile neighbors and their occupiers from overrunning Pakistan completely to punish it for their decade long failures in Afghanistan.
History Repeats, Pakistan at cross-roads again
After Salala Incident, Pakistan rightly blocked the NATOs GLOC Supply route considered the most vital line to provide logistics to the war theatre in Afghanistan. History repeats itself when world pressurizes Pakistan to re-open the supply routes even though Pakistans sovereignty was breached, its soldiers were martyred, it was punished for being an ally; in fact the ally that has suffered the most in this infamous war. We need understand that Pakistan should have taken much more severe stance by asking US to handover the culprits of Salala but the only thing that Pakistan still presses for is an apology that US arrogantly refuses. Blocking the supply route, in fact coming out of this war alliance is in Pakistans highest interest, integrity and long term prosperity. The countries compelling Pakistan to allow supply route are the same who were pressurizing and intimidating in case of Nuclear Tests, but Pakistan rightly decided to pursuit its National and Regional stability interests. If Pakistan would have obliged then, we might have been reduced to the size of Srilanka perhaps, if not completely over-run by hostile powers. Therefore it is not wild to assume that any sanctions today are not tantamount to economic collapse, Pakistan has every guarantee to survive and prosper unless it succumbs to world pressure. Strong nations pursue their National Interests, whatever the cause, whatever the sacrifices needed. Pakistan stands at cross-roads today, yet it is not difficult to identify the route of prosperity, security and dignity.
Tabish Qayyum is the co-founder of Defense and Geo-Political Magazine Fortress and Investigative Journalist at PKKH. He is also a writer and educational consultant. He can be reached on twitter @tabesch.
