کیا عمران خان اس مہنگائی اور ڈالر کو کنٹرول کر پائےگا-

[waqarkhan22]

کیا عمران خان اس مہنگائی اور ڈالر کو کنٹرول کر پائےگا۔حقیقت پسند جواب چاہئے۔ اور کیا کوئی ایسے اقدامات اٹھائے جارہے ہیں جس سے یہ مسلہء حل ہو؟ یا ہاتھ پر ہاتھ دھرے بیٹھ کے پچھلے حکومت کا رونا روتے رہینگے؟​

 

[Xiggs]

Not with this kind of bureaucracy unless there's some divine intervention with a rain of miracles.

 

[brohiniaz]

ڈالر صرف بینک سے ملنا چاہئے منی چینجر پہ پابندی لگا دینی چاہئے حالات کافی کنٹرول میں آ جائیں گے

 

[insouciant]

Haqeeqat Pasand Jawaab: YES. But from FY2020. Not this Year.

Here is some technicality if you are interested: In simple language, you can say that there are 4 drivers of economy: Consumption, Government Spending, Net Exports, & Investments.

To reduce the Current account deficit we need to reduce our consumption and government spending this year further. Which means this year has to be slow. But this slow growth then needs to be offset by investment and exports. Many Investment MoUs are going to start maturing from FY2020 meaning we will start seeing $$$ investment coming into the economy. Similarly, this year will lay the foundation for reforms for increasing exports. As CAPEX would kick in export sector, you can start seeing $$$s flowing in from next year! For the same reason, the IMF program was reduced to just $6 Billion; Otherwise, our financing needs are ~$20Billion. In parallel, we'll need to make our government enterprises profitable too so that we can get some space in Government Spending!

Hope this answers!

کیا عمران خان اس مہنگائی اور ڈالر کو کنٹرول کر پائےگا۔حقیقت پسند جواب چاہئے۔ اور کیا کوئی ایسے اقدامات اٹھائے جارہے ہیں جس سے یہ مسلہء حل ہو؟ یا ہاتھ پر ہاتھ دھرے بیٹھ کے پچھلے حکومت کا رونا روتے رہینگے؟

 

[insouciant]

What's the % of Dollars in Banks and with Money Changers in Pakistan? If you can provide me answer for this, I'm sure you'll retract your statement! :)

ڈالر صرف بینک سے ملنا چاہئے منی چینجر پہ پابندی لگا دینی چاہئے حالات کافی کنٹرول میں آ جائیں گے

 

[waqarkhan22]

Haqeeqat Pasand Jawaab: YES. But from FY2020. But not this Year.

Here is some technicality if you are interested: In simple language, you can say that there are 4 drivers of economy: Consumption, Government Spending, Net Exports, & Investments.

To reduce the Current account deficit we need to reduce our consumption and government spending this year further. Which means this year has to be slow. But this slow growth then needs to be offset by investment and exports. Many Investment MoUs are going to start maturing from FY2020 meaning we will start seeing $$$ investment coming into the economy. Similarly, this year will lay the foundation for reforms for increasing exports. As CAPEX would kick in export sector, you can start seeing $$$s flowing in from next year! For the same reason, the IMF program was reduced to just $6 Billion; Otherwise, our financing needs are ~$20Billion. In parallel, we'll need to make our government enterprises profitable too so that we can get some space in Government Spending!

Hope this answers!

I like your detailed answer but that’s for longer term. What can the government do in the short term so the people can have some faith in the government? At this moment it looks like we are in the black hole and things are getting worst day by day.

 

[insouciant]

Economy is a long term game. Volatility is always there in the short-term in every economy in the world. Just run the graph of any currency or stocks for a month or a 6 month period during any tenure. You will see it'll be up 2 days down 2 days etc.

The only difference right now is that Media is trying to build a narrative and script that it is being paid to build to spread hopelessness and desperation among the public! So my advice would be, just stop watching media or stop taking it seriously! You'll be FINE! :)

I like your detailed answer but that’s for longer term. What can the government do in the short term so the people can have some faith in the government? At this moment it looks like we are in the black hole and things are getting worst day by day.

 

[khaaki]

Haqeeqat Pasand Jawaab: YES. But from FY2020. Not this Year.

Here is some technicality if you are interested: In simple language, you can say that there are 4 drivers of economy: Consumption, Government Spending, Net Exports, & Investments.

To reduce the Current account deficit we need to reduce our consumption and government spending this year further. Which means this year has to be slow. But this slow growth then needs to be offset by investment and exports. Many Investment MoUs are going to start maturing from FY2020 meaning we will start seeing $$$ investment coming into the economy. Similarly, this year will lay the foundation for reforms for increasing exports. As CAPEX would kick in export sector, you can start seeing $$$s flowing in from next year! For the same reason, the IMF program was reduced to just $6 Billion; Otherwise, our financing needs are ~$20Billion. In parallel, we'll need to make our government enterprises profitable too so that we can get some space in Government Spending!

Hope this answers!

Very succinct and forward looking statement.... I hope it sees its fruition.
Secondly what's your take on IK's inability to stem the flow of money laundering as well as repatriation of the embezzled monies inland and overseas?

 

[waqarkhan22]

Economy is a long term game. Volatility is always there in the short-term in every economy in the world. Just run the graph of any currency or stocks for a month or a 6 month period during any tenure. You will see it'll be up 2 days down 2 days etc.

The only difference right now is that Media is trying to build a narrative and script that it is being paid to build to spread hopelessness and desperation among the public! So my advice would be, just stop watching media or stop taking it seriously! You'll be FINE! :)

I think the government should have some media on it’s side. There is no need to be at war with all channels. The government should give some sensible advertisements to the channels so they are also not in crises plus the government will get some extra support too.

 

[brohiniaz]

What's the % of Dollars in Banks and with Money Changers in Pakistan? If you can provide me answer for this, I'm sure you'll retract your statement! :)

I am not sure exact % with banks but what I know that the Money changers have transferred $160b abroad

Malik Bostan informed the meeting that currency exchange firms have facilitated people to transfer around $160 billion abroad through legal channels in the past 23 years. “People would have transferred more dollars aboard using illegal channels (like hundi and hawala), he said.

He said the volume of transferred dollars was much larger than the total foreign debt of the country worth $100 billion as of today. He said the exchange companies have brought $13 billion in Pakistan since 2010. It provided $1.2 billion to the current government through banking channels.

He said they were capable enough to help bring more and more dollars into Pakistan if the government let them sign an agreement with foreign exchange firms. “We are bringing dollars through only five foreign exchange firms, while banks in Pakistan are attracting workers remittances through such 500 foreign firms,” he informed the meeting.

Pakistan ponders action after rupee’s free fall | The Express Tribune

Govt decides to crackdown against currency dealers selling dollar above Rs144

tribune.com.pk

 

[Amal]

 

[Dream Seller]

Yes but judiciary and NAB has to step up...strangle the convicts and take the looted money...they won’t soeak with such leniency...

 

[insouciant]

It's a double edged sword! Once you'll start supplying meat to a vulture it'll keep growling at you for more! And it will never end! I don't know the financial situation of the media houses, but i'd be surprised if more than half of them won't shut down in the next 1 yr.

A better strategy instead for the PTI government would be to educate the public instead so they don't fall for their propaganda and focus HARD on reforms so a normal man can witness the change on the ground. I think they had the same strategy in KPK! If you recall every media channel was saying nothing good has happened in KPK during their last tenure, but the election results proved otherwise as people witnessed a measurable positive change in governance and government departments!

I think the government should have some media on it’s side. There is no need to be at war with all channels. The government should give some sensible advertisements to the channels so they are also not in crises plus the government will get some extra support too.

 

[Common_pakistani]

ڈالر صرف بینک سے ملنا چاہئے منی چینجر پہ پابندی لگا دینی چاہئے حالات کافی کنٹرول میں آ جائیں گے

Agreed 100%, dollar availability in open market make it trading community not the currency.

 

[insouciant]

Money Transfer service is not the same as Money Exchange Service. In Money Transfer, you take the dollars from someone and send it abroad for the fee. In Money Exchange, you swap the currency. It's the Money Exchange which settles the exchange rate, not the money Transfer.

Our Money Exchanges have a liquidity of ~$10-$20million vs. ~$15 Billion in Banks. So money exchanges have peanuts.

Now the big question comes that how people are able to convert and Transfer so much $$$s then? And this is where BLACK MONEY and UNDOCUMENTED ECONOMY comes. So you can see how big it is! And that's why KHAN keeps yelling that corruption is our Biggest issue! That is why it is said that Pakistanis are Rich but Pakistan is Poor! Even if tomorrow we can bring all that Black money into our economic circulation, $$ will crash!!

You can prevent all that black money from leaving Pakistan by cracking down on Hawala/Hundi! And it should be done! At least you'll ensure that all the Black $$'s haven't left Pakistan. And You can hope that people will avail amnesty scheme to white wash their Black $$s then and put them in the bank!

I am not sure exact % with banks but what I know that the Money changers have transferred $160b abroad

Malik Bostan informed the meeting that currency exchange firms have facilitated people to transfer around $160 billion abroad through legal channels in the past 23 years. “People would have transferred more dollars aboard using illegal channels (like hundi and hawala), he said.

He said the volume of transferred dollars was much larger than the total foreign debt of the country worth $100 billion as of today. He said the exchange companies have brought $13 billion in Pakistan since 2010. It provided $1.2 billion to the current government through banking channels.

He said they were capable enough to help bring more and more dollars into Pakistan if the government let them sign an agreement with foreign exchange firms. “We are bringing dollars through only five foreign exchange firms, while banks in Pakistan are attracting workers remittances through such 500 foreign firms,” he informed the meeting.

Pakistan ponders action after rupee’s free fall | The Express Tribune

Govt decides to crackdown against currency dealers selling dollar above Rs144

tribune.com.pk

 

[Common_pakistani]

Yes but judiciary and NAB has to step up...strangle the convicts and take the looted money...they won’t soeak with such leniency...

They are part and parcel of this game.

 

[insouciant]

I don't know how much Money has been laundered this year. I'll need to see State Banks Balance sheet which they compile at Fiscal Year End. So it's hard to tell before July. But I'll be surprised if there has been much! Since this government is bound by FATF to prevent Money Laundering. It's one of FATF's key requirements!

However, after Recent volatility, I'm pretty sure one of these two things have happened:
a) Some Money Exchange Mafia has artificially created shortage of $$ supply and increased the $$ price OR
b) Some people have definitely exchanged a lot of $$$'s and they are most probably keeping it in their lockers! It's either they did so intentionally to create a panic environment for the government or they are betting on $$$ rate.

Now if in the next month government procures excess $$$'s through amnesty or some investment or through any other loans those people will lose big time. On the hand, if the government's import bill would increase (which can because of increasing Oil prices, but it may not if the government had earlier bought in till aug/sep futures) then they'll make quick money!

I've not covered details and technicalities. But i think it's still enough to help!

Very succinct and forward looking statement.... I hope it sees its fruition.
Secondly what's your take on IK's inability to stem the flow of money laundering as well as repatriation of the embezzled monies inland and overseas?

 

[FreeCountry]

Beechara Imran is just a puppet. I voted for him which was a mistake. But I don't blame him. Real culprits are someone else.

 

[Dream Seller]

They are part and parcel of this game.

Agreed but basics...that is justice. If justice isn’t there, anything and everything is in vein.

 

[ARSHAD2011]

What's the % of Dollars in Banks and with Money Changers in Pakistan? If you can provide me answer for this, I'm sure you'll retract your statement! :)

Who fix inter bank rate , money changer ? in Pakistan its very easy to play blame game. New govt always blame previous govt.
if no then bureaucracy..... I don't think as per govt direction they can do any think even till 2022.