Why flattening of the curve through a Locdown will hurt us even more???

[desan]

Purpose of the lockdown is to slow down the spread of the disease so that the healthcare system does not get overwhelmed and able handle the volume of deathly ill patients. That is why the importance of critical care beds and race for the accumulation of ventilators is highlighted.

Normally Western countries have excess beds and ventilators, so that they can easily withstand a slight rapid surge of demand, like during a disaster or a major flu season.

US:
Ventilators = 200,000 (however, there is a need for a million of them)
Hospital beds = ~ 1 million (need several millions for COVID)

Pakistan:
Ventilators = 2 - 3 thousands (will probably need at least a million)
Beds = ??? (Don't expect to be no where those in the US)

Based on above statistics, one can see that we are woefully unprepared to handle this pandemic. Slowing the COVID will have no value for us and worse it will further protract the disease and as a result will have a significant impact on the economy and people's livelihood.

Like to hear a counter argument or better strategy if there is one.

 

[desan]

This graph is the rationale behind flattening of the curve.

Orange line is close zero in our case!!!

 

[desan]

Australia Widens Coronavirus Testing as Death Toll Rises...

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-24/australia-warns-of-impending-health-system-crisis-amid-surge-in-coronavirus-cases

For those who think lock down will buy us some time until the warm weather kicks in...

 

[Talwar Gujjar]

If we can retard it by 3 to 4 weeks, warm weather may help us through.

 

[AhmadSaleem264]

May be we have over evaluated corona

Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

New epidemiological model shows urgent need for large-scale testing

www.ft.com

Coronavirus 'may have infected half of UK population', researchers say

The University of Oxford's Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group found that far more people in the UK could have contracted coronavirus than previously thought

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[AhmadSaleem264]

Australia Widens Coronavirus Testing as Death Toll Rises...

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-24/australia-warns-of-impending-health-system-crisis-amid-surge-in-coronavirus-cases

For those who think lock down will buy us some time until the warm weather kicks in...

Infection rate is much slower in russia and south east asia being explained as corona is less transmittable in extreme weathers

 

[P@triot]

It's a collective effort..If people want this virus to go away, they have to take precautions..

 

[desan]

Infection rate is much slower in russia and south east asia being explained as corona is less transmittable in extreme weathers

Jury is out on Russia because of their gross under reporting...

Next 3 weeks will give us a clearer picture from that region.

 

[Danish99]

Lock down is the only option,we can buy more time,,ease the pain,learn the new trends and be in better position to tackle the epidemic.Summer weather is approaching that might be helpful or develped countries could find better ways to handle this epidemic and we could learn from them.

 

[Eyeaan]

Hospital beds = ~ 1 million (need several millions for COVID)

مشرف دور سے پہلے ۔(اعشاریہ سات فی ہزار )بیڈ تھے۔ مشرف دور میں بڑھ کر ایک بیڈ فی ہزار ہوئے ۔ دس سالہ جمہوری چوری دور نے اسے کم کر کے اعشاریہ چھ فی ہزار پر پہنچا دیا ۔ اب وہی اپوزیشن جو اس وبا پر سیاست کرتی ہے۔
۔
امرہکہ میں دو اعشاریہ نو بیڈ ہیں جو یورپین کے مقابلے میں بہت کم ہیں یورپ میں عمومی تعداد چار سے نو تک ہے ۔ جاپان کوریا ٹائیوان میں تعداد سب سے پہتر ، دس سے زیادہ، ہے جبکہ علاقہ میں چین میں تعداد کم یعنی چار اعشاریہ نو ہے ۔ ​

 

[Eyeaan]

Jury is out on Russia because of their gross under reporting...

Next 3 weeks will give us a clearer picture from that region.

Data is not available to make any statement about covid-19 but there is a correlation of temperature and weather with the spread of infection of other corona viruses
Anyhow, infection is spreading in the Scandinavia which has some similar weather to the populated areas of Russia Extreme weather areas have scant population to matter much for assessing the spread of virus.

 

[Nadir Bashir]

These are special times.
Ok then we need a special approach as well. Corona virus is not going to be wiped out. It is going to stay until a proper and effective vaccine is invented. Reason: it is technically not possible to stop the spread unless Allah forgives the humanity............Mathematically it is impossible to stop and we will continue seeing ups and downs in our life time.................

Now what to do??

Lock down for a month or two is acceptable, after people will not accept any further lock down..................

Corona is going to be a new world order and we will have to learn to live with it..............

Focus on vaccination and people shall use natural foods to increase their immune system.............

Economy will eventually slow down in the export sector since there will less demand.

Same is going to happen in local market as well since people will not spend in luxuries etc...................

Government will have to focus on towards foods items to be produced in enough quantity and for export as well. Food sector is going to pay heavy returns............................May be, food may help to get rid of our loans..................so use every single inch and every piece of land for agriculture...............................................

 

[Masud Javed]

it has to be done or we will be like italy

 

[arafay]

Summer is our only hope. A higher temperature will hopefully reduce the spread of the virus. Having said that, this virus is not going anywhere and will spike again in the winter until a vaccine or treatment is found.

 

[Sohail Shuja]

This graph is the rationale behind flattening of the curve.

Orange line is close zero in our case!!!

Though such a lock down is not the answer to the problem, but at this point in time, it seems a better option.

It is right that if people are left to roam freely, the horizontal spread of the disease will pressurize our healthcare system beyond its capacity, however, such a lock down beyond acceptable limits will pressurize our economic system on the other hand and the results can be worse.

Sometimes, you have to choose between the devil and the deep sea.

My two cents would be to device a proper movement plan. See the areas where you are more susceptible for the spread of the disease and pay heed to these areas in particular. By looking at the statistics, it is quite comprehensible that the elderly and specially the people with certain underlying conditions such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, chronic pulmonary diseases and hypertension are more likely to be affected by the malady than others. Therefore, special attention should be given to these people. Moreover, people living at high altitudes/hilly areas naturally have a weaker immune system, therefore these populations must be catered for in specific.

Secondly, there should be special protocols at the areas of mass congregations-- offices, educational institutes, hotels, hospitals, mass transit systems and other areas of the like. Movements should be calculated and precautionary/preventive measures should be well observed/practiced.

Last, but not the least... the Government should not only focus on the provision of ventilators and hospital beds alone, there should be a special focus on the protective products as well like face masks and hand sanitizers as well as things which boost the immunity, like there should be public services messages for the people telling them about the food and lifestyle changes which may increase their natural immunity.

To be honest, this is a war like situation. You know you are going to have some casualties, but with a good strategy and a plan, your chances to win are greater. BUT the bottom line remains "Aap ney GHABRANA NAHI HAY!" and for once, I believe it, without an iota of a doubt.

 

[Eyeaan]

Summer is our only hope. A higher temperature will hopefully reduce the spread of the virus. Having said that, this virus is not going anywhere and will spike again in the winter until a vaccine or treatment is found.

You may be quite right about the re-emergence of covid-19 in the next winter, however the example with regard to SARS is different ((SARS-CoV-2 and SARS are both corona but 'SARS' is acronym of symptoms, not structure) . SARS has vanished for all practice. So the final word is still out regarding SARS-CoV-2 (or covid-19) as well.
There are other instants of sudden emergence and vanishing of a diseases in history. So it's not yet known covid-19 will work like common flu.

Also, a person once infected, about certainly, doesn't infect anyone after recovery.. There are 100+ instances of re-infection of the cured persons (reasons: human fault or other?) but none have spread virus to other.
Better to sing old Happening's song --See You in September, Will you love me Or Leave for the Summer Love

 

[desan]

Infection rate is much slower in russia and south east asia being explained as corona is less transmittable in extreme weathers

Summer is our only hope. A higher temperature will hopefully reduce the spread of the virus. Having said that, this virus is not going anywhere and will spike again in the winter until a vaccine or treatment is found.

You may be quite right about the re-emergence of covid-19 in the next winter, however the example with regard to SARS is different ((SARS-CoV-2 and SARS are both corona but 'SARS' is acronym of symptoms, not structure) . SARS has vanished for all practice. So the final word is still out regarding SARS-CoV-2 (or covid-19) as well.
There are other instants of sudden emergence and vanishing of a diseases in history. So it's not yet known covid-19 will work like common flu.

Also, a person once infected, about certainly, doesn't infect anyone after recovery.. There are 100+ instances of re-infection of the cured persons (reasons: human fault or other?) but none have spread virus to other.
Better to sing old Happening's song --See You in September, Will you love me Or Leave for the Summer Love

Endemic viruses usually have seasonal variation.

However, novel viruses with no immunity in the humanity behave quite differently.

1918 Spanish Flu and 2009 Swine Flu are case in point.

 

[Eyeaan]

Endemic viruses usually have seasonal variation.

However, novel viruses with no immunity in the humanity behave quite differently.

1918 Spanish Flu and 2009 Swine Flu are case in point.

Maybe it is not certain yet.

"scientists are looking at comparable outbreaks like SARS and MERS. SARS, which started its spread in late 2002, shares almost 90 percent of its DNA with the current virus. The SARS outbreak started in November and lasted until July, which only hints at seasonality, says Weston, and containment may have resulted from early intervention. In other words, did it disappear with warmer weather, or did treatment and prevention efforts simply work?
MERS began in September 2012 in Saudi Arabia, where temperatures are generally high. Unlike SARS, it was never fully contained, and new cases are occasionally reported. The novel coronavirus has also begun to circulate locally in the Middle East, namely in Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
“We don’t see too much evidence of seasonality in MERS,” says Weston.

But whether SARS and MERS were truly seasonal or if this virus will imitate SARS is unclear. "

Will warming spring temperatures slow the coronavirus outbreak?

Flu season generally subsides in April and March, but will the coronavirus go with it? Past coronavirus outbreaks can offer clues.

www.nationalgeographic.com

And the same uncertainty in

Scientists hopeful warmer weather can slow spread of coronavirus

Some studies suggest Covid-19 will follow marked seasonality trend of other viruses

www.ft.com

And see

Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has spread rapidly to multiple countries and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. While influenza vi

papers.ssrn.com

However even if there is a seasonably factor, its effect will be much smaller in scale because it is a new virus and yet people have not been immunized.
Actually I was searching for a recent paper I read about laboratory structured virus. the results were uncertain with some promise for slowdown (If I recall where I saw that, I'll post the link.)

 

[desan]

Maybe it is not certain yet.

"scientists are looking at comparable outbreaks like SARS and MERS. SARS, which started its spread in late 2002, shares almost 90 percent of its DNA with the current virus. The SARS outbreak started in November and lasted until July, which only hints at seasonality, says Weston, and containment may have resulted from early intervention. In other words, did it disappear with warmer weather, or did treatment and prevention efforts simply work?
MERS began in September 2012 in Saudi Arabia, where temperatures are generally high. Unlike SARS, it was never fully contained, and new cases are occasionally reported. The novel coronavirus has also begun to circulate locally in the Middle East, namely in Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
“We don’t see too much evidence of seasonality in MERS,” says Weston.

But whether SARS and MERS were truly seasonal or if this virus will imitate SARS is unclear. "

Will warming spring temperatures slow the coronavirus outbreak?

Flu season generally subsides in April and March, but will the coronavirus go with it? Past coronavirus outbreaks can offer clues.

www.nationalgeographic.com

And the same uncertainty in

Scientists hopeful warmer weather can slow spread of coronavirus

Some studies suggest Covid-19 will follow marked seasonality trend of other viruses

www.ft.com

And see

Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has spread rapidly to multiple countries and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. While influenza vi

papers.ssrn.com

However even if there is a seasonably factor, its effect will be much smaller in scale because it is a new virus and yet people have not been immunized.
Actually I was searching for a recent paper I read about laboratory structured virus. the results were uncertain with some promise for slowdown (If I recall where I saw that, I'll post the link.)

It will be hard to predict how COVID will behave.

SARS lasted till July.

Biggest reason for MERS to fizzle out was due to it's low R0 of 0.8.

How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers

The risks posed by Covid-19 — and the possibilities for getting it under control — become clearer with some simple math.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Eyeaan]

It will be hard to predict how COVID will behave.

Hard to predict? It is unknown either way. So a statement on either end is baseless without data.
Only thing which can be predicted is that even if there is a seasonal effect then its impact will be comparably low. This is a new virus. and its seasonal effect cannot be compared to the old viruses, to which much of population is already immunized.
Also it is not exactly known that why these viruses show seasonal and regional variations. There are several theories ( a mix of structural, social and environmental reasons) but not the exact reasons .