پیپلزپارٹی عمران خان کے متبادل کے طور پر تیار؟سہیل وڑائچ کے انکشافات

aneeskhan

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
I don’t agree with Sohail Warraich’s analysis. In my view, Shehbaz Sharif will replace IK as PM and Chaudhry Nisar will replace Buzdar as CM Punjab after next elections. The basis of my analysis is twofold. One, PTI’s below-par performance in Punjab and almost-Zero performance in Karachi ( I am neither discussing here the fallout of 18th amendment nor the financial situation that PTI inherited. I am only talking about what I see on ground and what common man feels). This will cause PTI perform poorly during next elections in Punjab and Karachi. Two, both Shehbaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar are very much acceptable to Military Establishment. IK’s unwillingness to change Buzdar is annoying Military and Shehbaz-Nisar duo is becoming more and more acceptable to them. The other day Daily Dawn wrote about GHQ’s meeting with five federal ministers in which GHQ conveyed the message about PTI’s position in Punjab due to Buzdar.

Dear PTI supporters: You can’t gauge PTI’s performance and popularity in Punjab by living overseas. You have to be physically living in Punjab in order to see the performance and popularity of PTI.
Quite realistic analysis, but Aasra for Billo is there.
Even their tummy full after looting Karachi n Sindh plus Wardis getting good easy share.
 

Qudsi

Senator (1k+ posts)
مریم نے کوئی چیز دکھائی ہو گی اسے اسی لیے یہ اس کا بیانیہ پروموٹ کر رہا ہے
 

chandaa

Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
Bachey Jhamoorey inviting army to help them remove an elected Govt. 100 litar iss ki tashreef pe maarney chahiyae!
 

Fawad Javed

Minister (2k+ posts)

دریائی گینڈے صاحب! اپنی پیشن گوئیاں اپنے پاس ہی رکھیں . ہیجڑا ابھی تیس سال کا ہے اور وزیر اعظم بننے کے لیے عمر کا پینتالیس برس ہونا ضروری ہے
they have history of selecting dummy PMs, they could select Kaira aur Aitezaz as a dummy PM and Zardari will call all the shots
 

wasiqjaved

Minister (2k+ posts)
ye baat kisi se dhaki chhupi nahi hai ke ye Warraich Prime Minister Imran Khan se bughaz rakhta hai aur shareefon aur bhutto'on ka paaltu hai. Inhi ko khush kernay ke liye iss chawwal ne ek kitaab likhi thi "ye company nahi chale gi" ... lekin ye tasaveer dekhna bhool gaya tha.

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baaqi rahi sahi kasar iss ke shaahi tatti khaane ne poori ker di
 

ranaji

Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
مثلی کالیا وڑ آئچ
کالو خنزیر اسکی پہلے کونسی بات سچ ہوئی ہے دریائی گھوڑے نما کالے خنزیر کی
 

Hussain1967

Minister (2k+ posts)
Quite realistic analysis, but Aasra for Billo is there.
Even their tummy full after looting Karachi n Sindh plus Wardis getting good easy share.
Zardari and Adi will keep milking Sindh, particularly Karachi, after next elections too. It will be better/wise for both MQM and PSP to become part of Shehbaz-led Federal Government and Zardari-led Sindh Government. That way they can get something for Karachiites.

It will be great service of GHQ for the people of Pakistan if they could help in creating separate provinces for Urdu-Speaking ( in the form of South Sindh) and Sraikis ( in the form of South Punjab). This is the only way one can end the monopoly of PMLN and PPP over Pakistani politics. This will also ensure social and economic justice to all Pakistanis. Creation of South Sindh doesn’t mean that other ethnicities can’t go and live in Karachi for livelihood.
 

ranaji

Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
حیرت ہے یہ مثلی کنجر اور میراثی سہیل وڑ آ ئچ ، زبیر عمر کنجر میراثی مثلی اور چوڑا زبیر عمر ، نہال کنجر اور میراثی مثلی جعلی ہاشمی یہ تینوں کنجر بد صورتی بد شکلیُ اور حرام توپی میں ایک ہی نسل اور ایک ہی حرامی کی بدکاری کا نتیجہ لگتے ہیں
 

Fiza

MPA (400+ posts)
The establishment which Sohail Warriach is talking about is the secret name of Pak Army.
All the Pakistani politicians are just puppets and stooge of Pak Army. Its the Pakistan Army that decides who is going to rule in Pakistan. So whoever is ready to become puppet of Army that person would be PM. Nawaz was former puppet and Imran is current. The future puppets would be Bilawal and Maraim while the rest is just bullshit and waste of time. When it comes to people of Pak they are just duffers to believe these politicians.
 

Hussain1967

Minister (2k+ posts)
It may be not that easy. Just getting people's support is not enough for a political party to make a government in Pakistan's democracy. :-)

Do you remember how PPP made the government in 2008? They didn't win in Punjab. They had enough seats in Punjab to make the government. PMLN will struggle to get seats from outside punjab. I agree they will be a majority party in Punjab.

The establishment will never allow a party to govern which is openly mouthing against them. Also, PTI has chosen to put only one party's members behind bars. (i.e. PMLN) It means if PMLN comes to power then most of the PTI members will be in Jail in two years. So how can the establishment and PTI stop PMLN getting into power in two years?

The only solution is, if PPP and PTI align then they may get enough votes to make the government. It wouldn't matter if PMLN gets majority votes like the 2018 elections. At most Shahbaz Sharif will become Chief Minister of Punjab again. Imran Khan will continue as the PM, Zardari may again become the president. Don't worry about what Imran Khan says about Zardari today. He had also called Pervaiz Ilahai Punjab kah sab say barha daakoo, then asked him to be the speaker of the Punjab assembly. He also hated MQM before, but now says that MQM politics is similar to PTI.
This is the reason Maryam Nawaz is calling Bilawal selected because it looks obvious that there has been a deal between the establishment and PPP. There is no other possibility to stop PMLN from coming into power in the next election.
Shehbaz-led PMLN, with Ch Nisar as its key member, will have no issue in working with Military. Nawaz and Maryam too will compromise ( At minimum, they will stop attacking Military )when their party will come into power. This is how our political parties work.

Now, let’s look at some number-crunching from Punjab for the past three elections. PPP was able to form government in Centre in 2008 because it came very close to PMLN in Punjab. PMLN won 63 NA seats while PPP won 51 seats. In 2013 elections, PMLN won 126 seats, PPP won ZERO. PTI got 8 while 14 seats were won by independents. In 2018 elections, PMLN won 60 seats, PTI won 67 while PPP won 6 seats.

Due to the reasons mentioned in my previous post, PTI will suffer badly in Punjab. As a result, PPP might gain few seats from South Punjab and that’s it. The real gainer will be PMLN who could win close to 120 seats from Punjab alone, close to what they got in 2013. Add to it another 6 or 7seats from Hazara Division of KP ( Haripur, Abbotabad, Mansehra), one or two from Capital territory, and the party will be close to forming government in Islamabad. One needs 137 General seats ( out of a total of 272 seats ) to form a government in Pakistan. Reserved seats are granted in proportion to general seats. So, if you win 137 General seats, your tally becomes 172 after adding reserved seats.

So, my analysis is that PMLN will form governments in both Centre and Punjab, PTI in KP, PPP in Sindh, and BAP+JUI in Balochistan. Shehbaz-led PMLN will pose no threat to Military’s hegemony. Mariam will be nurtured for a possible turn as CM Punjab in 2028.
 
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Hussain1967

Minister (2k+ posts)
The establishment which Sohail Warriach is talking about is the secret name of Pak Army.
All the Pakistani politicians are just puppets and stooge of Pak Army. Its the Pakistan Army that decides who is going to rule in Pakistan. So whoever is ready to become puppet of Army that person would be PM. Nawaz was former puppet and Imran is current. The future puppets would be Bilawal and Maraim while the rest is just bullshit and waste of time. When it comes to people of Pak they are just duffers to believe these politicians.
I can understand why political commentators use the word ‘Establishment’ in Electronic and Print Media. But, I don’t understand why social media also uses word establishment instead of Military. All international publications makes explicit use of the name Military in Pakistan’s case.
 

waqqaskhan

Politcal Worker (100+ posts)
With due respect I had the same feeling he is uttering non sense, but why we start cursing, bashing, humiliating. Why can not we listen something against our thoughts. Some how I feel we are very emotional people. We start hating each other for very petty things. He may not even see these remarks and we are boiling our blood for nothing. Have some grace and learn to ignore things.
 

Tit4Tat

Senator (1k+ posts)
I don’t agree with Sohail Warraich’s analysis. In my view, Shehbaz Sharif will replace IK as PM and Chaudhry Nisar will replace Buzdar as CM Punjab after next elections. The basis of my analysis is twofold. One, PTI’s below-par performance in Punjab and almost-Zero performance in Karachi ( I am neither discussing here the fallout of 18th amendment nor the financial situation that PTI inherited. I am only talking about what I see on ground and what common man feels). This will cause PTI perform poorly during next elections in Punjab and Karachi. Two, both Shehbaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar are very much acceptable to Military Establishment. IK’s unwillingness to change Buzdar is annoying Military and Shehbaz-Nisar duo is becoming more and more acceptable to them. The other day Daily Dawn wrote about GHQ’s meeting with five federal ministers in which GHQ conveyed the message about PTI’s position in Punjab due to Buzdar.

Dear PTI supporters: You can’t gauge PTI’s performance and popularity in Punjab by living overseas. You have to be physically living in Punjab in order to see the performance and popularity of PTI.

obviously we don't now what's in the future but I think establishment would like to continue with pti and Imran khan, this suits them the most, they will not find a better person to be PM than Imran Khan as far as being on the same page is concerned. So far, other than differences in handling Maryam Nawaz issue, no major dispute seems to have occurred between military and Imran khan. Because Imran Khan hardly gave them a reason and has been a good Lad to them.

Military will do its best to further weaken Noon in Punjab, maybe give more space to PPP in Punjab along with usual \Sindh Govt for them. Rest of the smaller parties will get more scraps too.

So it will be a win win position for all parties except Noon.

Punjab's performance or overall condition of Awam has absolutely no bearing on the decisions that Generals take when they are moving strings from behind, their decisions are always based on strengthening military's own strength more and more.
 

bigfootyetee

Senator (1k+ posts)

دریائی گینڈے صاحب! اپنی پیشن گوئیاں اپنے پاس ہی رکھیں . ہیجڑا ابھی تیس سال کا ہے اور وزیر اعظم بننے کے لیے عمر کا پینتالیس برس ہونا ضروری ہے
are you sure u were present at his birth?
 
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