This article is part of a series of evidence-based analysis of Pakistan’s current political spectrum with the use of statistics, GIS and data visualization. We will further explore the position of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s electoral tsunami in the upcoming general elections 2013 to forecast if it has a realistic chance to win the next elections. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, commonly known referred as KP or KPK, is perhaps the most democratic province in the country and its electoral history is testament to that fact. This, perhaps, goes as far back as 1500 years when Pushtunwali code – a code of life for ethnic Pushtun/Pukhtun people – was formed. Pushtunwali codes states that ‘nobody is above you and nobody is below you’. This is ingrained in their psyche and candidates are judged on their past performance and record when Pushtuns go out to vote. Performance also becomes a key factor here when we speak of last two elections as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, bordering troublesome FATA region and war-torn Afghanistan, was at the center of US war on terror and faced the brunt of the war.
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), an alliance of right-wing parties, swept through KPK in 2002 election securing 29 out of 35 National Assembly seats. However, their lack of performance and silence over US war in Afghanistan turned people away from them and in 2008 elections, left-wing parties Awami National Party (ANP) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPPP), were able to secure 19 seats. The rest were divided among Pakistan Muslim League factions and MMA.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and more importantly its leader Imran Khan, has been vocal against US war in Afghanistan and price Pakistan is paying for supporting US, with thousands of lives, terrorism and economic collapse; voicing the popular sentiment in Pakistan and especially in KPK province. As we go for elections in 20 days, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa looks like a fortress of PTI with its effects bleeding into FATA region comprising of 7 tribal agencies where people will vote for political parties for the first time in 2013 election. Internal PTI members stats suggest that party is poised to win at least 18 seats of National Assembly from the province; with Taliban targeting ANP and PPPP political activities, PTI is the only party that is campaigning in the province with full force and is likely to sweep KPK with a possibility of 27 seats.
A geo-spatial analysis of the above table reveals that PTI has hit the power center of KPK – Peshawar, Charsadda, Mardan, Nowshehra & Swabi – and is rapidly reaching to the urban parts of the province. With PTI chairman Imran Khan visiting two districts – Karak and Dera Ismail Khan – in the mostly politically ignored Southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, PTI hopes to sweep the province with effects reaching to Tribal Agencies in the West, Seraiki area on the East and Northern parts of Pushtun-dominated Baluchistan. As a most potent electoral force in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2013 election, PTI has finally arrived!
Constituency Name 2002 2008 Variation Chances NA-1 Peshawar-I MMA ANP Different Likely NA-2 Peshawar-II MMA PPPP Different Win NA-3 Peshawar-III MMA PPPP Different Win NA-4 Peshawar-IV MMA ANP Different Win NA-5 Nowshera-I MMA PPPP Different Win NA-6 Nowshera-II MMA ANP Different Win NA-7 Charsadda-I MMA ANP Different Possible NA-8 Charsadda-II PPPS PPPS Same Result Win NA-9 Mardan-I MMA ANP Different Win NA-10 Mardan-II MMA MMA Same Result Possible NA-11 Mardan-III MMA PPPP Different Win NA-12 Swabi-I MMA Independent Different Win NA-13 Swabi-II MMA ANP Different Likely NA-14 Kohat MMA ANP Different Win NA-15 Karak MMA MMA Same Party Likely NA-16 Hangu MMA ANP Different Not Likely NA-17 Abbottabad-I PMLQ PMLN Different Possible NA-18 Abbottabad-II PMLQ PMLN Different LIkely NA-19 Haripur PMLQ PMLN Different Possible NA-20 Mansehra-I PMLQ PMLQ Same Result Not Likely NA-21 Mansehra-II MMA MMA Same Party Not Likely NA-22 Battagram MMA PMLQ Different Not Likely NA-23 Kohistan MMA Independent Different Possible NA-24 D.I.Khan MMA PPPP Different Possible NA-25 D.I.Khan-com-Tank MMA MMA Same Party Possible NA-26 Bannu MMA MMA Same Party Not Likely NA-27 Lakki Marwat MMA PMLQ Different Not Likely NA-28 Buner PPPS ANP Different Possible NA-29 Swat-I MMA ANP Different Win NA-30 Swat-II MMA PPPP Different Win NA-31 Shangla MMA PMLQ Same Person, Different Party Not Likely NA-32 Chitral MMA PMLQ Different Not Likely NA-33 Upper Dir-cum-Lower Dir (Old
MMA PPPP Different Possible NA-34 Lower Dir MMA PPPP Different Likely NA-35 Malakand P.A MMA PPPP Different Win
About Author: Yasir H. Sheikh helps with PTI Election Campaign as a Data & Geo-spatial Analyst. This analysis was based on PTI’s internal members stats which mainstream media and analysts do not have access to. Moreover, broadcasters in Pakistan normally ignore scientific methods while analysing a party’s chances in Election.
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