PTI and Seraiki Province

[kakajee]

If PPP manages to make Seraiki province, I think the country is doomed then. Because in that case, both PML(N) and PTI would not be able to grab seats from majority of these areas. Admit it our nation is too emotional, foolish and illiterate to understand these tactics of the rulers.

Do you think PTI will still be able to win the seats from Seriaki belt?

[sadani]

I dun see any reason that PTI wont be able to take any seats from Saraiki Province,

yes it will be a nightmare for PML-N....

but Pakistani ppl will never vote for Zardari in "NATIONAL" elections....


In 2008 , PPP got sympathy vote due to Benazeer Murder but ....i dun think so that its possible now for AAZ

its PTI time inshALLAH

[kakajee]

@sadani

I respect your opinion but I think ground realities are different.

The moment PPP has started this 'shosha', people are going haywire over this province. I think people and specially the poor people living in these areas are still PPP voters.

I dont live there in that part of the world neither do I have many friends there. But I think (as I see on media) that PPP is still a force to reckon with there.

[zeshaan]

Chah kunn ra chah paish,
.

[sadani]

Well , with the inclusion of Shah Mehmood Qureshi , Javed Hashmi , Jahangeer Tareen and his South Punjab Group ( around 15 Ex- MNA and Ex-MPA like Leghari Bros , Khakwani , Naurez Shakoor ) , Raye family of Sahiwal , few Nawab family members from Bahawalpur , must be a clean sweep from Mianwali as Inam ullah niazi is also in PTI .....

I mean with all of them , it shouldn't a very difficult task for PTI.

Remember ,

Usually in Pakistani Politics , A Ruling Political Party never comes in Power after national elections.
Its always a new face.....

so now in this case....

If not PPP than who...

we have only two choices...

Either PML-N or PTI...

You are right that after Saraiki province slogan , PML-N would be on back foot and they would greatly suffer.
but i think in the end it would be PTI who will get a victory from this region....

[kakajee]

What about Multan? If people can cast 95k votes in favor of that dolt Ali Musa Gillani, do you think PTI stands a chance there?

[mohibbewatan]

I agree with OP that PPP is trying to grab big chunk of South Punjab seats (48 in total).

Parties likely to share this are PPP, PMLN, PTI and PMLQ (likely to further boost PPP as PMLQ grabbed quite a few seats there last time).

I agree that people in these areas are too naive to understand the motives of PPP and will surely forget suffering of last 5 years and if you check 2008 election results, majority of votes were shared between PPP and PMLQ and now both will favour each other and could grab even more seats than before. The only thing that has changed is that there was no PTI last time and only time will tell if they are able to snatch major chunk of those votes from PPP and PMLQ.

I have been watching talk shows in the last few days and there is a common question asked by PPP representatives, they always ask "Are you against creation of South Punjab province or do you support". You can clearly see that they see this as win win situation where if PMLN/PTI oppose creation of South Punjab province then they will cry about it in front of people that we tried our best but these people do not want to make South Punjab a seperate province. If these parties agree to make another province then they will claim that it's ONLY because of PPP and hence people will vote for them more than other parties.

[kakajee]

If they get 40 seats from there and another 35-40 from Sindh, they will be all set to make government AGAIN in the center with the help of their allies MQM and ANP.

God save Pakistan. Its a nightmare.

I agree with OP that PPP is trying to grab big chunk of South Punjab seats (48 in total).

Parties likely to share this are PPP, PMLN, PTI and PMLQ (likely to further boost PPP as PMLQ grabbed quite a few seats there last time).

I agree that people in these areas are too naive to understand the motives of PPP and will surely forget suffering of last 5 years and if you check 2008 election results, majority of votes were shared between PPP and PMLQ and now both will favour each other and could grab even more seats than before. The only thing that has changed is that there was no PTI last time and only time will tell if they are able to snatch major chunk of those votes from PPP and PMLQ.

[mohibbewatan]

If they get 40 seats from there and another 35-40 from Sindh, they will be all set to make government AGAIN in the center with the help of their allies MQM and ANP.

God save Pakistan. Its a nightmare.

I highly doubt that they will be able to get 40 seats in South Punjab (No doubts about Sindh though). A lot has changed since last elections so they may get new votes because of South Punjab province drama but they would definitely lose a lot of votes due to their performance as well so it will be very interesting. Don't forget that SMQ, Legharis, Hashmi, Khakwani etc are now with PTI so we can't say anything. If Imran can come up with some strategy to tackle this new province strategy then it will be even better.

[kakajee]

Why is IK and PTI ignoring Southern Punab and Interior Sindh? We dont see any jalsa in there?

Is it part of strategy or they have just lost hope specially in Sindh?

[sadani]

Yes , PTI is ignoring Interior Sindh , but trust me they are doing very good in South Punjab.

In last month of March , PTI whole focus was on South Punjab.

They organized dozen of such gathering in different parts of South Punjab.

They held gatherings in Sahiwal , Bhakkar , Mianwali , Bahawalpur etc





Back in action: PTI makes progress in south Punjab

By Mohammed Rizwan
Published: March 23, 2012

After a brief lull, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) roadshow has sprung back to life, dispelling the impression that Imran Khan’s bandwagon is losing steam. The party’s back to back public rallies at Bahawalnagar, Hasilpur, Muzaffargarh, Khanewal and Mailsi during a three-day whirlwind tour of south Punjab attracted enough people to show the incumbents that they’ll have a run for their money in the region. Khan is to address important public rallies in Sialkot on March 23 and in his hometown Mianwali on March 24.



Khan swung back into action from last month after a relatively quiet spell during which he concentrated on his party’s organisation, forming a policy planning cell, a constitution committee and a steering committee to look after new entrants into the party. In February, he swept through 17 towns and villages in rural Lahore in two days. For the last few days, he has been camped in Lahore planning rallies and delegating organisational matters to party stalwarts, that included an important move to name veteran Javed Hashmi as party president.


Yesterday at Zaman Park, he welcomed three-time MNA Rao Qaiser from Depalpur and the Cheema brothers from Sialkot. The latter are a breakthrough for the PTI in Sialkot, as most of the city’s national and provincial seats belong to the PML-Nawaz. It’ll be interesting to see how Sialkot receives the PTI caravan.


“I want to tell our detractors that the tsunami is not stoppable,” said Khan at the press conference to welcome Qaiser and the Cheema brothers. “The decadent old system built around corruption has to go. The status quo forces must see the coming tsunami and stop trying to stop it through their intrigues.”


The PTI chairman ridiculed the notion that his party had the support of the establishment. “They were first calling me an ISI agent and now they say I am a Jewish agent. They must decide quickly who I am,” he said.


“They have seen us in Lahore, in Karachi, in Multan, in Sindh … They thought that with the departure of a general the party was finished. I am not the one who is walking with the crutches of the army,” said Khan, referring to Lt Gen Shuja Pasha’s departure as head of the ISI.


Khan said his party’s organisation in south Punjab was being divided into three chapters for Multan, Bahawalpur and DG Khan. The party constitution, being drawn up for the last three months, will soon go public, he said.


The constitution, it seems, lays down a separation of powers between party members and those who want to run for public office. The word is that the party’s cadre would have a check over the executive if the party comes to power. The policy planning cell headed by Jehangir Tareen will look after policy on all issues concerning security, politics and the economy. The recently launched Insaf Professional Forum will feed ideas to the policy cell.


While Shah Mehmood Qureshi is vice-chairman of the party, the day to day political matters will be resolved by Javed Hashmi. He will also look after the membership drive of the party, in which it expects to sign some four million members. These members will serve as the electoral college for the party candidates in each district.


Published in The Express Tribune, March 23^rd, 2012.


http://tribune.com.pk/story/353805/b...-south-punjab/

[sadani]

PTI South Punjab Activities in March




Bahawalpur Royal Family Member Usman Abbasi Joining PTI ( March )





In Khanewal ( March )

[Aliansari]

I dun see any reason that PTI wont be able to take any seats from Saraiki Province,

yes it will be a nightmare for PML-N....

but Pakistani ppl will never vote for Zardari in "NATIONAL" elections....


In 2008 , PPP got sympathy vote due to Benazeer Murder but ....i dun think so that its possible now for AAZ

its PTI time inshALLAH

Yes and Now Zardari and Co are Talking to Those People (Electables) by what ever means they can get them who win Seats on their Own in Punjab and even in Sindh and Latest entry is Haji Khan Chachar of Pano Akil Sindh who was in PML Q and Then with Mahar Group.

[sadani]

Also there are more than 55+ NA seats from South Punjab ( even if i'm discarding Chiniot , Sargodha , Khushab ).

I personally think that PTI can get 30+ seats quite easily from this region and if they make right political alliances like if they do seat adjustment with PML-Q in some South Punjab districts than they can even win 40+ seats.

by the way , PML-Q ( due to their winning horses ) is still a political force in area , specially they got two influential MNA from Jhang ( gaisal Saleh Hayat and Shaikh Waqas Akram ) , Similarly Raja Hayat Hiraj , Riaz Fityana , Riaz Hussain peerzada , Hiraj and Bodla families from Khanewal etc.

In my opinion , PTI should first try to take these politicians into their ranks , If not possible than make a seat adjustment with them.

PTI will definitely hurt PML-N and PPP vote bank in South Punjab and if they would not do any alliance or seat adjustment with PML-Q than it would be a quite difficult for their candidate to beat all the three big parties in one go.

PTI would not like to face a situation like PTI Vs PML-N + PPP + PML-Q + Religious Parties

I think first they should ally with religious parties like Jamat e Islami
Than they should do a seat adjustment with PML-Q

[A.Ali.T]

If they get 40 seats from there and another 35-40 from Sindh, they will be all set to make government AGAIN in the center with the help of their allies MQM and ANP.

God save Pakistan. Its a nightmare.

بھائی اگر قوم خودکشی کرنا چاہتی ہے تو اسکو میں اور آپ نہیں بچاسکتے

[amrikansundi]

i am worried about the fact that even if pti manages to emerge as the single largest party after the elections, pml-n and ppp will form a coalition government. because it is difficult to win more seats than those two parties combined.

[oscar]

سرائکستان بننے سے1991 کا پانی کی تقسیم کا معاھدہ بے معنی ھو جائے گا۔
جنوبی پنجاب میں پانی کی بہت کمی ھے۔
سرائکستان کے پاس پنجاب کے کسی دریا کا کنٹرول نہیں ھو گا۔ البتہ دریائے سندھ کا پورا کنٹرول ھو گا۔
نتیجتا” کالا باغ ڈیم، تھل کینال اور چشمہ جھلم لنک کینال کا معاملہ پھر کھڑا ہو جائے گا۔

زرداری صاحب کی چالاکی صوبہ سندھ کو بہت مھنگی پڑ سکتی ہے

[Saboo]

Chah kunn ra chah paish,
.

Maida tay taida!

Aye kukkarr aye, eh khanda bahun tukkarr aye
Eh meda sayein mainkun!

Eh hill aye, ehda aida wada dil hay
Eh meda saeen taikun!

Eh bakri aye, eh sarian tun wakhri aye
Eh meda sayeen mainkun!
Eh kawn aye, ehda aida wada hawn aye
Eh mainda sayeen mainkun!

[asif86]

Its just rhetoric.They dont have time to create a new province.They are using the seraiki card to stay relevant in punjab politics.Many of their candidates are uncertain about their future because of zardari/gillani poor performance in 4 years.

[ConcernedPaki]

@kakajee @sadani

Interesting discussion. Here are my two cents.

1. If Zardari is playing the Seraiki card simply to put off the polls till late 2013 so that CJ and COAS retire, I have no doubt that Mian brothers are fully on board in this plan. Simply because Mian can force Zardari for polls anytime he wants, but so far he has not shown any such plans. Given their ganging up against PTI, I'd not rule out this possibility. This has also been hinted in some news reports.

2. Now say that Zardari is simply playing this card to curry favor with the Seraiki people. I'm from Lahore, but several of my friends as well as my in-laws are from the Seraiki belt. Here's what I have gathered from talking to them. a) Seraiki province resonates a lot with Seraiki people and is a very alluring slogan b) Sharif brothers are detested in South Punjab and their recent performance has further alienated them.

Take a look at the 2008 elections. Say that NA148-NA197 constitute the Seraiki belt (I'm excluding Mianwali, Bhakkar, Sargodha, Okara as I don't know what benefit these places will get from a South Punjab province with BWpur as capital). Noon league had 12/50 seats in South Punjab. PPP+PML-Q alliance comes up to 36/50 seats! So noon league does not have a very enviable record and some of even these 12 seats are under threat e.g., NA149,150,173. Junior Sharif hasn't done anything to grab hold of South Punjab and noon league seems set to be the biggest loser. If the idea of South Punjab does indeed go through, noon league will be limited to the urban areas of North and Central Punjab.

Now come to PTI. South Punjab seems all about electables right now. PTI has attracted quite a few electables in areas like Multan, DG Khan, Muzaffar Garh (merger with PDP), Sahiwal, Khanewal, Vehari etc. Its still weak in BWpur, RYK, Pakpattan, etc. I personally expect PTI to do well in South Punjab. In a way, IK is also Seraiki! If he manages to create a wave by frequent visits to these areas, expect a few surprises. For noon league, it seems like damage control in South Punjab. Question really is if PTI can give PML-Q+PPP a good run for their money! PML-Q+PPP is a very strong combination in South Punjab and it will require big effort to defeat them.

Interior Sindh (PPP), Urban Sindh (MQM, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for PTI in a 'fair' election), KPK (PTI) and Balochistan (everyone's cake) seem somewhat clear. The real battle will be fought in Punjab. Are we heading towards PTI vs noon league in north+central Punjab and PTI vs PML-Q+PPP in South Punjab?

Kakajee, you're from north Punjab. Whats your opinion about your region?